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Tobby Connor
Editorial 08-17-12

Toby Connor's Regression to the Mean

...


Welcome to Bessemer Bend Stocks. Here you will discover a different approach to stocks and trading. This is not a commercial site. Nothing said here constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell securities. However, the Consitution does allow individuals to express opinions about companies and their securities. Investors and traders are strongly urged to make up their own minds and to trade in their own styles. Grownups are supposed to think for themselves.

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QQQ
11-30-17
1544 - 6% = 1451
11-30-17
1544 - 3% = 1498

My Recent Thoughts:

All the markets look toppy here. There must be some regression to the mean and we are way past October. The fall back may not happen until January. Turns out, it did not happen until February.

How the Economy Is Really Doing
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How the Markets Are Really Doing
ShadowStats.Com
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U.S. Offial CPI Inflation Calculator

Untouchables, on PBS.org.

Classic Links:

These Are the Three Skills You Need to Be Successful in Life on DailyWealth.Com.

What Money Does to Your Character on TheReformedBroker.Com. if">

This chart says the Federal Reserve is losing on TheCrux.Com

The Rot of America on Market-Ticker.Org

How The Fed Controls The Stock Market on BeforeItsNews.Com

33 Times You Poor Dumb Bastards on TheReformedBroker.Com

Why Austerity Works And Fiscal Stimulus Doesn't on NewsDay.Com

A Conservative Case For The Welfare State on NYTimes.Com

Wild Men on the North Fork

Commentary

May 25, 2018

Here are some links to interesting artcles

1. 'Trump’s Tariffs Are Already Costing American Jobs' on HuffingtonPost.com

"Tariffs imposed by the U.S. Commerce Department on Canadian newsprint in January and increased in March have caused the price of the paper product to skyrocket as much as 32 percent, hitting an already cash-strapped newspaper industry."

2. 'Conservatives Have a Millennial Problem' on WeeklyStandard.com

"Disdain for millennials (defined by Pew Research as people born between 1981 and 1996) is a well-documented phenomenon. Older generations have been complaining about kids these days since time immemorial. For a brief moment, Pajama Boy, that 'insufferable man-child,' as news outlets described him, became the modern avatar of all that was wrong with kids these days, recognizable by his silly ironic clothes, sense of entitlement, dependence on Mom and Dad or, worse, the state. The Affordable Care Act had changed health insurance law to allow children under the age of 26 to remain on their parents’ health insurance policies, a provision that was popular in public opinion polls but viewed by the right as emblematic of how the left coddles the young. The Pajama Boy ad efficiently encapsulated conservative anger about Obamacare and their anxieties about young people.

During the last decade, antipathy for millennials and their views has been something of a hallmark of the conservative movement. Poll after poll shows young people abandoning the right, and the feeling is evidently mutual. Despite losing young voters by a two-to-one margin in the 2008 election, Republicans largely shrugged their shoulders and decided the problem wasn't the GOP, it was those darn kids."

3. 'In About-Face on Trade, Trump Vows to Protect ZTE Jobs in China' on NYTimes.com

"The company said last week that it had halted 'major operating activities' after being penalized by the United States Department of Commerce. On Sunday morning, President Trump surprised many in Washington when he indicated a willingness to rethink the punishment. He also appeared to walk back from brinkmanship that has threatened the United States' trade talks with China.

In a tweet, Mr. Trump said he was working with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to prevent the collapse of the company, which employs 75,000 people."

4. 'China really is to blame for millions of lost U.S. manufacturing jobs, new study finds ' on MarketWatch.com

"What that means is, the adoption of technology is not the chief reason why millions of working-class Americans lost their jobs in a vast region stretching from the mouth of the Mississippi river to the shores of the Great Lakes. Nor was it inevitable.

Autor and now Houseman contend the introduction of China into the global trading system is root cause of the job losses.

Put another way, President Bill Clinton and political leaders who succeeded him accepted the risk that the U.S. would suffer short-term economic harm from opening the U.S. to Chinese exports in hopes of long-run gains of a more stable China."

May 1, 2018

Here are some links to interesting artcles

1. 'We Only Get to Experience One Version of Reality' on TheReformedBroker.com

"The rapid unraveling of GE has wiped out roughly $140 billion in stock-market wealth in the past year, not just at big Wall Street firms but among small investors. The industrial giant is one of the most widely held U.S. stocks.

By comparison, the stock value lost by GE in the past 12 months is twice the amount that vanished when Enron Corp. collapsed in 2001—and more than the combined market capitalization erased by the bankruptcies of Lehman Brothers and General Motors during the financial crisis. Longer term, GE’s market capitalization has fallen more than $460 billion since its 2000 peak."

2. 'Is the Two-Party System Doomed?' on RollingStone.com

"The pure rage and sense of abandonment in those courts was striking. This group of people experiencing a system stacked against them was not interested in elaborate explanations of how the foreclosure crisis evolved. Most were focused on questions like, "Where are my kids going to sleep tonight?"

If I'd even tried to bring up, say, a foreign policy question in that room – So, now that you have no house, what do you think about the future of the EuroZone? – I might have had my teeth knocked out.

It was clear that if all of these groups ever started to align with each other – the Occupy types and, say, the victims of the foreclosure crisis – you'd have revolution, and probably a pretty quick one, given the numbers involved."

3. 'Cash Flow' on TheReformedBroker.com

"Malone realized that programming costs and taxes were his chief enemies. He dealt with the former by spreading out these costs across a large and ever-growing subscriber base. He dealt with the latter by leveraging up and making more acquisitions. He referred to paying taxes on profits as “leakage” and once said he’d rather pay interest (on the company’s debt) than taxes. He even invented the term EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization), now in common use, to teach his investors to focus on cash flow over everything else.

Amazon figured this out a decade after John Malone's pioneering strategy became apparent to the cable industry and he applied it to ecommerce. Had Bezos prized profits over scale, it would have been a trap – no one wants the mid-single digit profitability of a regular retailer. There is a meme out there saying that “Amazon makes no money.” This is false: Amazon’s cash flow is f***ing enormous."

4. 'Bill Bonner: How rejecting tradition created a monster' on TheCrux.com

"For the last 30 years, household net worth has risen about twice as fast as the underlying economy. Stock prices, in other words, are not based on real output.

And there is still no net gain in household income – despite 110 months of growth (the second-longest expansion in history) – for the entire 21st century."

5. 'New York Times upgrade by J.P. Morgan cites demand for reliable news ' on MarketWatch.com

"Shares of New York Times Co. soared Monday after J.P. Morgan turned bullish ahead of the media company's earnings report, citing an 'attractive' valuation for investors and a boost in demand for 'reliable' news outlets as social media shifts its sourcing.

The bullishness contrasts the ongoing criticism from President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly labeled the paper as 'failing,' including as recently as a Sunday tweet.

Analyst Alexia Quadrani raised her rating on the stock, stuck at neutral for at least the past 2½ years, to outperform. She boosted her share-price target to $27, which is about 15% above current levels, from a previous target of $25. "

6. 'Which has the bigger economy: Texas or Russia?' on TheCrux.com

"But whereas Russia's economy is highly dependent on exports of oil and petroleum products, the Texas economy is broadly diversified. The state ranks first in the U.S. for not only oil production but also wind energy. It has a robust agricultural sector, and it's a leading hub for advanced technology and manufacturing, aeronautics, biotechnology and life sciences. Austin, the state capital, is steadily emerging as the most dynamic U.S. filmmaking city outside of Hollywood.

All of this has helped contribute to Texas being among the fastest growing states in the U.S. In 2017, it grew by more than 1,000 new residents per day.

Meanwhile, Russia's population is slowly shrinking because of low birth rates and low immigration. Its population peaked at 148 million in the early 1990s—right around when the Soviet Union fell—and by 2050, it's estimated to sink to 111 million."

7. 'The End of Republican Accountability' on RollingStone.com

"When Senator Al Franken faced a sexual misconduct scandal last fall, the outcome was painful accountability. Allegations of unwanted touching – and intense pressure from senior members of his own party – forced the Minnesota Senator to resign.

The contrast to the GOP of Donald Trump is striking. For Republican politicians, accountability has lost all meaning. In recent months, America has seen GOP leaders, appointees and candidates violate the public trust – and in several cases, likely the law – with zero accountability within the White House or the party."

March 13, 2018

Here are some links to interesting artcles

1. 'Britain gives Putin midnight deadline to explain ex-spy attack' on TheGlobeAndMail.com

"'Either this was a direct act by the Russian state against our country,' May told parliament on Monday. 'Or the Russian government lost control of this potentially catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into the hands of others.'

Russia holds a presidential election on March 18 in which Putin, himself a former KGB spy, is expected to coast to a fourth term in the Kremlin. It has denied any role in the poisoning and says Britain is whipping up anti-Russian hysteria."

2. 'Tillerson Refused to Do Another Russia Deal' on Bloomberg.com

"There was little for Putin to like about Tillerson's clear condemnation of the Crimea grab and Russia's support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. And it wasn't just a starting position in a negotiation. These two subjects -- Ukraine and Syria -- have dominated Tillerson's rhetoric on Russia during his tenure as secretary of state. Last December, he said there would be no improvement in U.S.-Russia relations until the Ukraine crisis was resolved, ignoring the Kremlin's repeated desire to do so as part of a deal with the U.S. And in January, he blamed Russia for chemical attacks in Syria -- an impossible starting position for any discussion with the Kremlin.

In other words, Tillerson knew how to negotiate with Putin and his inner circle, but chose not to demonstrate that skill as secretary of state. He must have made up his mind early on that he wouldn't be smeared along with Trump by the unfolding Russia scandal."

3. 'Are Wage Gains Picking Up? Stalling? Questionable Data Makes It Hard to Say' on NYTimes.com

"The muddled data on wages was a potent reminder that even the strongest job market in a generation has not been robust enough to reverse a longstanding pattern of lagging pay. But the mixed messages also highlight the challenge of trying to figure out where wages are headed: Not only are the sources of the data volatile, but economists say they may also be declining in quality.

In recent months, different sources have told sharply diverging stories about how quickly companies are raising employees' pay. Wage growth may be slowing drastically after a period of strong gains, or it may be picking up after an extended slump. Or it may be stuck at more or less the same plodding pace that workers have become accustomed to for much of the economic recovery."

March 12, 2018

I am fairly well back into the markets. I have a seasonal play going on in Natural Gas and a very short term play going in technology, with longer term plays in Gold and Lithium. Technology has been on a tear and recently posted a correction, so it was logical to play it for one more leg up. It usually pays to buy Natural Gas in Winter because the traditional high is in May, which is when a lot of yearly contracts get signed.

Here are some links to interesting artcles

1. 'The four mistakes that will sink the economy' on TheCrux.com

"Since then, it has been off to the races, with debt rising three to six times faster than income. U.S. government debt rose eight times. The stock market rose 11 times. And the economy that supports both of them only went up four times. As we will show next week, investors in the U.S. stock market thought they were profiting from the Great American Enterprise Machine. Instead, they were unwitting accomplices to a huge fraud... in which most citizens were robbed to transfer money to the elite.

...As we showed you yesterday, Fed policy always consists of three mistakes. (1) It keeps rates too low for too long. (2) It raises them, causing a serious allergic reaction on Wall Street...which it then medicates (3) with more low rates. The Fed - benighted as always, bewitched by power, and vainly besotted by its own image - is now making Mistake 2. That is, it is trying to recover from Mistake 1 in time to be able to gather up some interest rates so as to make Mistake 3 again." I repeat a related link here from my last posting:

2. 'America’s hidden depression' on TheCrux.com

"In the bottom half of the U.S. population, 117 million adults earn an average annual wage of $16,000 a year. These people are worse off than they were at the end of the last century, and probably worse off than they were when the Fake-Money Era began in 1971. ... The map reveals that people in 2,278 counties have gotten poorer over the past 10 years. As best we can tell, that means 73% of U.S. counties are in a depression."

3. 'These 7 states still have fewer jobs than before the recession' on MarketWatch.com

Note that my own state of Wyoming ranks at the bottom of worst recovering states along with West Virginia.

4. 'White Evangelical Women, Core Supporters of Trump, Begin Tiptoeing Away' on NYTimes.com

"According to data from the Pew Research Center, support among white evangelical women in recent surveys has dropped about 13 percentage points, to 60 percent, compared with about a year ago. That is even greater than the eight-point drop among all women.

'That change is statistically significant,' said Gregory A. Smith, Pew's associate director of research, who also noted a nine-point drop among evangelical men. 'Both groups have become less approving over time.'"

5. 'G.O.P. Rushed to Pass Tax Overhaul. Now It May Need to Be Altered.' on NYTimes.com

"Among the problematic portions to emerge so far is what has become known as the 'grain glitch.' A late change to the legislation altered a deduction for United States production in a way that permitted farmers to deduct 20 percent of their total sales to cooperatives - agricultural organizations owned by groups of farmers that operate for the benefit of their members.

This allows farmers to deeply reduce their tax bills, but it has caused an uproar among independent agriculture businesses that say they can no longer compete with cooperatives, since farmers would choose to sell to cooperatives to take advantage of the more generous tax break."

6. 'Dial P for Privacy: The Phone Booth Is Back' on NYTimes.com

"As mobile phone use exploded and the pay phone was increasingly linked to crime, the booth began to disappear. At the same time, workplaces saw the rise of the open floor plan. We all saw (and heard) a proliferation of mobile phones, and with it, the irritating, distracting sound of a one-sided conversation from your cubicle mate.

Lauren Emberson, then a psychology Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, called it a 'halfalogue.' As she put it in the publication Psychological Science: 'I really felt like I couldn't do anything else when someone was on a cellphone. I couldn't read. I couldn't even listen to my music.'"

7. 'Trade War Prospect Shakes Part of Trump Base: Midwest Farmers' on NYTimes.com

"'The world's already awash in grain,' Mr. Gould said, 'and then if you lose a key customer - it's big. They're going to go somewhere else to buy it.' That's a tangible threat throughout the Midwest, which accounts for roughly half the nation's agricultural output, a prime target in any tit-for-tat response to the tariffs announced by President Trump. Unlike the rest of the economy, farms deliver a trade surplus for the United States, and a trade war could put barriers around lucrative markets.

Mr. Gould, 76, is a longtime Republican, and like large numbers of farmers, he voted for Mr. Trump. But several of the president's policy positions, like curtailing crop insurance, have run counter to agricultural interests - and perhaps none more than trade.

The country's overall trade deficit continues to irritate Mr. Trump. Last year, he withdrew from the nascent Trans-Pacific Partnership, challenged the authority of the World Trade Organization, and insisted on rewriting the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada - a pact that has helped lift American farmers' fortunes at a time when low prices have eaten into their incomes."

8. 'Who OPEC Sacrificed for the Greater Good' on Bloomberg.com

"While that wasn't entirely new, the thing that set his speech apart was the detail. Al-Naimi talked about how a price surge had 'unleashed a wave of investment around the world into what had been previously uneconomic oil fields.' In addition to U.S. shale he listed the Arctic, Canada's oil sands, Venezuela's Orinoco Belt and deep water frontiers.

All of those areas were affected by the slump in oil prices that accompanied OPEC's pump-at-will policy. But the impact was particularly brutal in two areas -- and both are members of OPEC. Two years on, the oil industries of Venezuela and Angola, which was at the forefront of deep water development, are looking a mess. And these nations' dependence on oil revenues makes the collapse far more painful than it has been for other countries that have seen their production fall."

February 13, 2018

I was largely out of the markets before the end of the year, as I was expecting some kind of pullback. We have had that, so the markets are going to keep going up for a while.

Here are some links to interesting artcles

1. '100% Chance of New Highs in the Next Six Months' on DailyWealth.com

"All 10 signals led to a rebound over one to six months, and the risk versus reward was ridiculously skewed to the upside."

2. 'America’s hidden depression' on TheCrux.com

"In the bottom half of the U.S. population, 117 million adults earn an average annual wage of $16,000 a year. These people are worse off than they were at the end of the last century, and probably worse off than they were when the Fake-Money Era began in 1971. ... The map reveals that people in 2,278 counties have gotten poorer over the past 10 years. As best we can tell, that means 73% of U.S. counties are in a depression."

3. 'Bill Bonner: An 'extreme warning' from our Doom Index' on TheCrux.com

"Corporate America is already pretty flush. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 is now 70% above its long-term average. In fact, the price of stocks relative to earnings has only been near this high three times in the last 118 year, each time caused by the aforementioned Fed party favors. And if stocks go higher, it merely gives them further to fall."

4. 'Top trader: Why the dollar is headed lower' on TheCrux.com

"Gold and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions. So, if the dollar breaks down from here, then the next few weeks could be bullish for gold."

5. 'Sjuggerud: How the unemployment rate predicts stock market crashes' on TheCrux.com

"As you can see, whenever the annual rate went up by as little as 5%, it was time to get extremely cautious. (For context, one example of a 5% change would be if the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.2% over 12 months.)"

6. 'Big Profits Drove a Stock Boom. Did the Economy Pay a Price?' on NYTimes.com

"In a nutshell, the United States has built an economy where businesses don't invest even though it has rarely been cheaper to finance investment. Still, they reap spectacular profits that warrant runaway share prices."

7. 'How Donald Trump's Schizoid Administration Upended the GOP' on RollingStone.com

"Moreover, the final wipeout of Bannon came at roughly the same time Trump was helping the GOP elders pass a tax-reform bill that was shepherded through by infamous Goldman Sachs heavy Gary Cohn and was, predictably, a massive giveaway to the rich. After all that anti-establishment Sturm und Drang, in other words, Trump in just a year had been reduced to a dumber, louder version of what he spent the entire 2016 race running against: a patrician Republican toady. The Trump-voter mob was still out there, furious, but the swamp avenger they sent to Washington no longer existed even in theory."

December 3, 2017

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/ Bubbles are anything but easy. Most people are in denial early in the bubble. Perfect case in point: For a year now I’ve been warning traders what would happen once the Nasdaq broke out above the 2000 highs. Yet most didn’t believe me. They were convinced the bull was too mature to make a big run to an outlandish number like 10,000. We’ve already covered almost 2,000 of the 5000 points needed and most people have missed all of it, and many have been trying to short it. As the bubble becomes more mature volatility picks up. We’ll get more scary pullbacks like we had on Friday. Traders will get knocked out as they won’t be expecting volatility like this. Then towards the end complacency will become extreme like we are seeing in bitcoin. That complacency will cause most people to hold too long and they will lose everything when the bubble pops. So don’t fool yourself. Bubbles aren’t easy.

September 25, 2017

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. VIDEO COMMENTARY:

September 24 Video: WHY BUBBLES FORM

    "Text: "This video looks at the reasons for bull markets to often end in parabolic blow offs, and reveals how the use of sentiment data can be used to identify these conditions in advance".

2. VIDEO COMMENTARY:

September 22 Video: NDX 6000

    "Text: "This video looks at the bull market in the Nasdaq Index (NDX) from its beginning in 2009 at 1,000 to where it is today near 6,000, and then projects its most likely trajectory over the next 6 months".".

3. VIDEO COMMENTARY:

September 17 Video: FOCUS ON STOCKS FOR THE NEXT 6-8 MONTHS

    "Text: "I believe that the vertical bubble phase of the stock market is just beginning. This video will show you why I believe this and includes a survey of various markets including the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, Transports, European stock markets and Semi Conductors".".

4. CHART OF THE DAY:

COD: CHART OF THE DAY – Breakout Imminent?

July 31, 2017

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. VIDEO COMMENTARY:

May 29 Video: BIG CONSOLIDATIONS = BIG RALLIES

    "One characteristic of all major bull markets is that they rally much further than anyone originally expects. One of the characteristics to watch for is the size of the consolidation preceding a major breakout. Examples of this phenomenon are examined in various markets – gold, DJIA, Nasdaq and silver. "

2. COMMENTARY:

May 29 Video: LAST CHANCE FOR THE DOLLAR TO RALLY

"LAST CHANCE FOR THE DOLLAR TO RALLY"

"I think we need to focus on what is happening to the dollar. The intermediate cycle is now 63 weeks long. Clearly that isn’t normal. I've maintained for several years that the end game was going to play out in the currency markets. There has to be consequences to printing trillions and trillions of currency units, and leaving interest rates at 0 for 8 years. I don't think the consequences are going to be deflation. I think the end game will be inflation, just like it was in the 70's, and just like it was in 2007 and 2008.

It's taken a while to manifest as other countries have jumped into the game and turned on their printing presses as well, so the collapse in the currency I've been looking for has taken quite a while to unfold. The first leg down ended in 2008.

The dollar rally out of the 2014 3 YCL has fooled everyone into thinking the dollar is strong and the euro is going to collapse. So everyone is now on the wrong side of the market. That's pretty much how every bear market starts with everyone on the wrong side of the boat.

In 2000 everyone thought tech stocks would continue to rise to the moon.

In 2006 everyone was convinced that we were running out of available land, and that real estate prices would continue to rise indefinitely.

In 2008 it was peak oil and calls for $250.

Now in 2017 it's the notion that the dollar is the prettiest pig in the pen. I'm going to go on record and say the dollar is not the prettiest pig. On the contrary I think the currency crisis I've been expecting is going to manifest first in the dollar. And as it does we are going to experience an inflationary shock. First in stocks, and maybe real estate, and later in the commodity markets.

When the dollar failed to rally and instead sliced right through the 38% Fib this week that was a warning bell that something is wrong. The theory now is that the 200 week moving average will turn price back up. But I'm starting to wonder if it will. During the last two bear markets the 200 offered no support at all, and price sliced through those levels like a hot knife through butter.

Ever since the world embarked on this crazy QE experiment we've seen markets do things they've never done before. Trends last much longer than normal. Cycle rhythms have evolved and stretched in many cases to two or three times normal, and sentiment has to reach much deeper or higher extremes before trends reverse.

Take a look at the bear moves in the yen and euro as a perfect example. The bear moves occurred as almost a straight line down. Virtually no bear market rallies. I wonder if the same thing is happening to the dollar.

Next week is going to be important. The FOMC meeting, and the 200 WMA are the last support zone, and last potential event trigger to stop the collapse in the dollar. If these fail then I'd say it’s Katie bar the door time. The dollar is going into the abyss.

From the minute QE 1 began this was inevitable, but it has taken a long time to play out, with a very convincing bull market in the middle to get everyone on the wrong side of the fence and make traders believe that 'this time is different'. It's never different. It wasn't different in the 70's when we printed too much money to pay for the Vietnam war. It wasn't different in 2007 & 2008 when the Fed kept interest rates too low, too long to pull us out of the tech bubble crash, and I maintain it's not going to be different this time either. There is going to be a penalty for keeping rates at 0 for 8 years and printing trillions of dollars.

Folks there is no free lunch. We've had one heck of a party since 2009. If you think there isn't going to be a hang over at some point, and a price to pay, I'd say you are going to be sadly mistaken."

June 5, 2017

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. CHART OF THE DAY:


"Once the Euro cycle tops it will break the trend line. That will also mark the intermediate cycle low in the dollar."

2. VIDEO COMMENTARY:

May 29 Video: THE DOLLAR HAS BEGUN A NEW BEAR MARKET

    "Not only will the bear market in the dollar drive a new bull market in gold, it will also drive the bubble phase in stocks which will continue until a parabolic structure forms and then collapses. After that the inflation will move into the commodity markets."

3. CHART OF THE DAY: JUST AS I PREDICTED…


"I'll tell you when it's time to buy miners and it's not time yet. We need to generate some excessive bearish sentiment first. That will come only at the intermediate cycle bottom. And that's not due until June."

I know I have not been active on this page for a while. But summer brings opportunity in the markets as money shifts into new areas. I will try to follow that and report to you. The first report should be the set up in gold as seen above in Gary Savage's reports. The second, obviously will be inflation in commodities. The third will be the typical August slump.

February 24, 2017

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. CHART OF THE DAY:

2. CHART OF THE DAY:

3. November 6 Video: DCL COMPLETE, NEXT LEG UP BEGINNING

    "The next leg up in a new daily cycle for the precious metals has begun. Silver is breaking away above its 200 dma with little resistance now until it reaches $19. Gold is approaching its 200 dma and once it breaks through that resistance is expected to top somewhere above $1300+."

.........................................

COMMENT

This is, traditionally, a very dicey time in the markets. I am being both cautious and optimistic. I do not believe this rally can have many more legs. I am watching GOLD closely to see if it really can fly - even while I have a short going on a miner (JNUG)

November 10, 2016

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. CHART OF THE DAY:

2. November 6 Video: GOLD & DOLLAR – TREND LINES NEED TO BE BROKEN

3. November 3 Video: GOLD AFTER THE FOMC MEETING

September 20, 2016

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. CHART OF THE DAY:

2. Video: THE BIG PICTURE – HUI MINING INDEX - September 18

3. CHART OF THE DAY:

4. MINING STOCKS – GETTING CLOSE TO A FINAL INTERMEDIATE BOTTOM - September 15

COMMENT

This is, traditionally, a very dicey time in the markets. I am being both cautious and optimistic.

August 29, 2016

Vacations and harvesting the garden leaves me little time. Sorry.

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. Review of Gold Consolidation Video - August 28

2. Oil Update Video - August 23

3. Dollar Update Video - August 21 http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/08/dollar-update.ht

July 20, 2016

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. Chart of the Day - July 16: GOLD AND THE DOLLAR

2. Chart of the Day - July 20: GOLD AND THE DOLLAR

COMMENT

Regular followers of the Bender Paper Portfolio know that I have been completely out of shorts since the end of May. Both Stansbury and Gary Savage have been pushing the idea that these markets could climb a long way. When they began talking this way it was very contrarian. Now it is not.

July 5, 2016

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

1. INFLATION - DEFLATION

"I listened to the debate between Rick Ackerman and Mike Shedlock on the Kereport today and I wanted to comment on the inflation side. We have a perfect example of two analysts locked into the deflationary crash scenario by what happened in 2009. Both are deflationists and both have been wrong all year long, and basically wrong since the bottom in 2009.

I'll say it again: In a purely fiat system there is no level of debt that can't be inflated away. We proved that in the 70's when we inflated away the Vietnam war debt.

Let me paint a picture for you. Let's say you have a printing press in your basement and have unlimited access to ink and paper. Explain to me how you can ever get so deeply in debt that you can't fix the problem by simply walking downstairs and firing up the press.

Essentially that is what the government does, and they don't even require any paper or ink. The money is created with a keystroke.

In this environment deflation is a myth and it's why these guys have been wrong for years. They simply refuse to walk down the stairs and see the printing press for themselves.

In a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice not an inevitability. If a country is willing to sacrifice its currency then any amount of debt can be inflated away. It doesn't matter how many trillions we are talking about. At any point in time the government can simply mail checks to its citizens. Never happen you say? For all practical purposes that's exactly what we did in the spring and summer of 2008 with the rebate checks.

Mike says that stocks are in a bubble. I had to laugh when I heard that. A bubble is characterized by price stretching 50 - 100% above the 200 day moving average and rising at least 100% in a year or less. It is also characterized by mass participation by the public.

Have any of those things happened in the stock market yet?

No, we aren't even vaguely close to that yet. It will definitely happen sometime in the future, but not for several years yet.

For the last year I've been warning that the bubble phase was coming. It won't happen overnight. Bubbles start slowly and build steam until the final year when things go parabolic. Just like I was the only one who spotted the baby bull in gold, I'm the only one who is warning that we are in the baby bull stage of the next bubble phase that is likely to last at least 3-5 years. in the stock markets.

I've watched as many analysts said I was crazy. Stocks were heading into a bear market they said. Well, here we are only 4 points from new all-time highs. Who's crazy now, me who predicted this a year ago, or the same analysts that continue to predict the next crash is just right around the corner?

Folks, it just doesn't pay to bet on the end of the world. It can only happen once.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of analysts are just like Rick and Mike, trapped in the memory of 2009 and expecting deflation. Unfortunately they’ve been wrong all year and they will continue to be wrong. We aren't going to get deflation anytime soon. The deflation will only come after the next series of bubbles pop. We are at the very beginning of a massive inflation and my subscribers have been making obscene profits this year because I correctly identified the inflationary trend developing instead of waiting for the sky to fall.

Folks, you have to quit listening to the deflationists, as they are going to cost you dearly in the years ahead. If you agree with what I said in the third paragraph about the power of the printing press, then you need to start buying stuff, almost any stuff, because everything is going up in the years ahead.

As I've been saying for over a year, EVERYTHING is going up together. All that printed money has to land on something, and the normal path is for it to land on everything.

I'll finish by showing you one chart - the chart of the Nasdaq. The bigger the consolidation the bigger the rally once a breakout occurs. You are looking at a gigantic 15 year consolidation. When this breaks out there is simply no telling how far it will go. There are literally trillions and trillions of inflationary currency units available to drive this higher. I'm going to take a guess and say a bare minimum target over the next 4-5 years is 20,000 and I'm probably underestimating.

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2. Chart of the Day: GOLD AND THE DOLLAR

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Guide to Past Postings:

News 27, June 22, 2015 from to August 22, 2015

News 26, from February 22, 2015 to June 20, 2015

News 25, from November 17, 2014 to February 14, 2015

News 24, from September 9, 2014 to November 16, 2014

News 23, from May 9, 2014 to August 25, 2014

News 22, from April 1, 2014 to May 11, 2014

News 21, from March 5, 2014 to March 22, 2014

News 20, from January 26, 2014 to March 2, 2014

News 19, from November 23, 2013 to January 23, 2014

News 18, from October 31, 2013 to November 17, 2013