 
Commentary
March 12, 2010
Here is a link to a story that makes perfect sense to me.
'U.S. Stocks Fluctuate Following Decrease in Consumer Confidence', by Rita Nazareth
on Bloomberg.Com. Retail sales were up in February, but Confidence fell. Hmmmm. Could
that mean that I am doing alright, but I know my neighbor is still out of work?
Here is a link to a January 29 story I am watching, and think all Benders should be
watching:
'U.S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993', by Margot Habiby
on Bloomberg.Com. I quote below.
"'With oil in the $70 to $80 range, it's very economical for operators to be drilling
oil wells,' said Gene Shiels, assistant director of investor relations at Baker Hughes.
'We're really seeing it in two places, in the Permian Basin in Texas, where the wells
are pretty shallow, and in the Williston basin, also known as the Bakken basin, in the
Dakotas.'"
Lots of rigs are running to where the 'gettin' is good'. The Bakken has the potential
reserves of Saudi Arabia. Got it? There has to be a way for a small investor to
own a piece of this story. There are going to be tons of money made here. A guy
I have coffee with every morning (and worked with in the oil patch) has a wife and sister-in-law
who own a farm in North Dakota. Five miles away, a neighboring farm had two wells drilled
on it (in the Bakken). Those wells each produce 750 barrels a day, each. Do the math. That
is a ton of money flowing off just one farm.
Here is another 'old' news story that has gotten my attention:
'Obama using 'bounty hunters' to root out fraud', by Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar (AP). This
has far-reaching implications. This Executive Order applies not only to Medicare, but also
to all other departments of the Federal Government, HUD, DOD, DOE, etc.
Here is link to another story flying under the radar of most folks:
'Connecticut Sues Moody's,S&P Over 'Tainted Ratings'', by Chad Bray of Dow Jones Newswires.
This is the suit I have been waiting for. When asked on CNBC what the difference between this suit
and the suits filed by Ohio and California, the Attorney General for Connecticut explain that
the other two suits were only on behalf of the states' pension funds. Connecticut's suit is on
behalf of all investors in the state. Wow. It's about time this happened.
Inflation
Your government has been
lying to you. Right now it is telling you that inflation is 'low' and 'mild'.
The fact that both Greenspan and Bubble Boy Bernanke could ignore asset inflation as
house prices doubled, sometimes in just three years, is a clear indicator of just how
insulated they are from the real world. I could have told them but they won't
take my call, nor yours either. Here in the real world, I see significant price
jumps in the past three months in everything having to do with automobiles: gasoline,
tires, batteries, etc. But there is no inflation right? That is what your government
is telling you.
So how does Bubble Boy keep from seeing the real inflation that is out
there? He reads government reports. They are full of lies and misrepresentations. You
and I know that. But he believes them...and then (and this is the scary part) he makes
decisions, that effect you and me in a big way, based upon what he has read. This is precisely
the formula for failure. This is what the Russians did back in the bad old days of the
Cold War. The guys at the top started to believe the lies generated by the beaurocracy
below them.
March 8, 2010
From Keith comes this link to a very long, but rewarding read:
'Betting on the Blind Side', by Michael Lewis on Vanity Fair.Com.
From Vegas comes this link to:
'Cramer is telling viewers that Citigroup is worth more than two JP Morgans! ?', on Yahoo.Com.
And here is a short note from Rich Kolon.
March 3, 2010
Here are two links from Vegas.
Here is a link from Red and White D.
From Rich Kolon comes this link.
And here is a note from Rich.
"...Not exactly, but that is the gist of what he thinks is happening to money supply. It is not being counted in M1 and M2 figures, as the Fed is not reporting the growth in its deposit currency in those calculations.
http://www.fgmr.com/us-dollar-money-supply-is-underreported.html
Essentially the Fed used to print currency to purchase paper assets, such as treasury bonds, from banks.
Now the Fed has been increasing the reserve accounts of money that these banks have at the Federal Reserve. That extra money is really loans from the Fed to these banks, with the Fed accepting toxic assets as collateral.
The key becomes whether these banks will ever try to pay back their loans to the Fed. Turk does not mention this. But theoretically those deposit reserves could be spent by the banks, if they don't intend pay back the Fed.
Since the banks have been reluctant to reduce their reserve accounts, e.g. by making loans to businesses, the inflationary impact on the money supply has not been released into the economy.
So what matters is whether any of those banks will renege on the buyback of those assets, and still keep the money, thus triggering high inflation. My guess is that Turk thinks that is likely.
Rich"
..............................
Here is a link to an article with grim news.
'States Reported Fifth Consecutive Drop in Tax Collections in the Fourth Quarter of 2009',
on RockInst.Org.
Here is a link to another piece with a black border.
'Get Ready for a Double Dip in Housing',
by Richard Suttmeier on Minyanville.Com. I quote it below.
"Sales of new homes plunged 11.2% in January to a record low 309,000 units on
an annualized basis. Sales of existing homes fell 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 5.05 million units, the weakest reading since June 2009."
Bubble Boy Won't Take Your Calls...
Ben Bernanke, whom I call Bubble Boy, won't take your calls. But he's a smart guy.
He looks at charts, like the one on the link below.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg
He can see what is coming. He has probably made a plan, and is probably implementing it
as you read this. The resets are coming. He knows. Everyone whose call he does take knows
they are coming. But he does not take your call.
You have no voice in the discussion, no place at the table. Presidents of countries and big
banks do. Other central bankers do. He takes all their calls. Now, since he does not take
your calls, but does take theirs...in whose interests do you think he will act?
February 21, 2010
Here is a link to 'U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Rose in Fourth Quarter', by Kathleen M. Howley of Bloomberg.
Rich Kolon sends along this note:
"Strategy to avoid financial extinction
(assuming you are not a large campaign contributor or lobbyist)
1) Realize the government has bailed out a lot of crooks, who in turn are giving themselves large bonuses at the expense of the stockholders and taxpayers.
2) Realize that most politicians are either bought for favoritism or too naive to realize how they are also scammed.
3) Don't believe what the authorities tell you (such as the crisis is contained, or jobs will be created, or they believe in a strong dollar, etc.)
4) Bet the opposite way once the masses have acted in the predictable way on any news. (For example, if the IMF wants to sell a lot of gold, buy the dips.)
5) In the short run, pay more attention to price vs. moving average on a chart than fundamentals.
6) In the long run, buy the dips on long term demand growth and long term supply constraint. (Gold, baby, Gold!)
Rich"
February 18, 2010
From Red and White D comes these notes:
"Here is evidence that you can't piss away hundreds of billions of
dollars, keep interest rates in the basement and expect things to
get back to normal.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61H13X20100218
Today's Star Tribune contained an
article about the legislature considering changes in the retirement
system to reduce their expenditures. Even fat cat Wyoming is getting smacked.
As you have observed already, the fed keeping interest
rates in the basement trying to scare capital back into
equities will end up hurting more than helping. When
pension funds start running out of cash the poop will hit
the fan."
And a second note:
A third note:
"Here is a link to the mortgage reset graphic, blown up so you can see the details.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg
Looks like this summer and next will be interesting. One
thing to consider is that the shock to the finance industry
from defaults on mortgages has been largely recognized and
in many cases has been factored into the books and
investment strategies. So, when things start going to hell
again in the mortgage market, the consequences will not be
as frightening the first time. But, sure as shootin, there
is bound to be a second dip this year or early next year.
And, as Kiyosaki observed, when interest rates start back
up, equities are bound to go flat.
I wonder how they will try to hide this stuff? You know
they will."
Big D, this is one of the things I have been looking at for two years...all this
was known then. We got a break in 2009 with the resets. But 2010 and 2011 are
going to be far worse than 2008 was. We've got all our corporations getting
'leaner' and laying folks off like crazy - STILL - just to keep bottom line
numbers high on falling top line numbers! Even the hiring freezes currently in
place tend to reduce the numbers on payroll. Consumers are tapped out - they have
no appetite for spending...consumers are the workers still left with jobs.
Jobless numbers are much higher than the 'gummit' will admit to. My own guesstimate
is that the real jobless number is about 18 percent. (The Great Depression jobless
number hit 25. So we're only seven percent away.) Another dip is definitely in the
picture sometime in the next two years.
And here is his fourth note:
"Greece is the scourge of the Euro dollar these days. Now,
GB is getting in the red ink line too but there is a
difference. GB can still print up the pound since they did
not go on the Euro plan. Greece on the other hand is a Euro
economy. Their finances are in a shambles and the rest of
the Euro-world is fussing about what to do with Greece.
Should the ECB print some more Euros to bail the Greeks
out? Should the rest of the Euro-world lend Greece money?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7031896.ece
Such is the reason the Euro is falling.
--------------
OMG run run, the Euro is falling, the Euro is falling.
-Chicken Little."
Here is a note from Rich Kolon:
"Matt Taibbi trashes Goldman Sachs for their actions that contributed to
the downfall of our financial system, and how they gained from the government's
response to it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/taibbi-goldman-raped-taxpayer-and-
raped-their-clients
'Con artists have a word for the inability of their victims to accept that they've
been scammed. They call it the "True Believer Syndrome.' That's sort of where we are,
in a state of nagging disbelief about the real problem on Wall Street. It isn't so
much that we have inadequate rules or incompetent regulators, although both of these
things are certainly true. The real problem is that it doesn't matter what regulations
are in place if the people running the economy are rip-off artists. The system
assumes a certain minimum level of ethical behavior and civic instinct over and above
what is spelled out by the regulations. If those ethics are absent as well, this thing
isn't going to work, no matter what we do. Sure, mugging old ladies is against the
law, but it's also easy. To prevent it, we depend, for the most part, not on cops
but on people making the conscious decision not to do it.
That's why the biggest gift the bankers got in the bailout was not fiscal but
psychological. 'The most valuable part of the bailout,' says Rep. Sherman, 'was the
implicit guarantee that they're Too Big to Fail.' Instead of liquidating and prosecuting
the insolvent institutions that took us all down with them in a giant Ponzi scheme,
we have showered them with money and guarantees and all sorts of other enabling gestures.'
Rich"
Rich, the regulators could not go after them. Neither could Congress. To go after the bad
guys you have to have been above it all...not part of it all.
..........................
The Credit Economy
During my lifetime the U.S. has become a consumer economy....based on a seemingly limitless
supply of credit.
We became more concerned about consumption than about production. And so it came to be
that the FED became fixated not on the flow of goods and services in our economy, but upon
the production, flow, and consumption of credit. Consumers ate credit. When they did,
the economy boomed. All well and good. But in a Credit Economy one factor becomes so
important it superceeds all others:
TRUST
I think trust is out the window. How can our central bank keep interest rates so low for
so long and think anyone is going to trust the currency? How can a dollar actually be
worth anything when, why by its actions, the FED tells us otherwise?
This FED, and the one before it, seriously underestimates the damage it is doing to TRUST.
We are in a Depression Folks. We've many more years to go. It is going to get worse before
it gets better. Lots of bad new out there on the horizon.
February 17, 2010
Keith sends along this link to 'An inevitable collapse? At least it's not a crash', by Brian Milner From Monday's Globe and Mail. I quote below. Bolding is my own.
"'People came to feel that the worst was over. They were looking ahead to better [corporate] earnings prospects, and they are very easily better than expected, because companies have cut a lot of costs.'"
February 15, 2010
Here is a link to 'Richard Suttmeier's Ten Predictions for 2010',
on Minyanville.com.
Rich Kolon sends along this note.
"Here is how I see things.
We are in a bear market. See QQQQ chart at Bessemer Bend Stocks. Most stocks go down in a bear market.
Chinese stocks were very hot in the months before the top in January. The bear market has broken the momentum.
When the Fed first announced that banks should get out of speculative investments about a month or two ago, this signaled the speculators to start taking profits.
(A general discussion is in this Time mag article:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,880512,00.html )
These speculators were involved in buying stocks, gold, oil, etc using money from the Fed or the Federal Reserve Banks. This is known as carry trade speculation. The speculators would borrow money at real low interest rates (stupid Fed), and one of the things they bought with borrowed dollars were Chinese stocks.
The Fed has also threatened to eventually raise interest rates. Carry trade speculators don't like that idea. It tends to increase the value of the currency. The dollar has gone up from the bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91058887254
In response to the carry trade currency going up, it is the conviction of carry trade speculators to sell what they speculate quickly, so they do not get caught owing more expensive dollars.
And that may be a partial reason why TPI has not performed as well as we expected.
Dollars move stocks. Fundamentals are an excuse to spend dollars on stocks, or sell them. Charts are an excuse. Carry trade is an excuse.
Fundamentals are great for long term investors. In the short term, fear and greed tend to be the quick motivators for traders.
Incidentally I sold TPI, GCHT.OB, CIWT.OB last month, primarily due to the QQQQ signal. I even sold some SVM.TO. (I still have a bunch.)
I consider the bull market of 2009 to be entirely a speculative stock bubble. I could not justify it fundamentally. You can make money in a bubble if you know when to get out. I predetermined that the best indicator of when to sell a bubble is the QQQQ signal. So I acted on it when it went negative.
The signal won't catch the top, nor the bottom. It will catch a trend in motion. So I'm still up from layoff day. I repeat my warning to pay attention to it.
Rich"
And here is a note from the Orange Section.
"Fred, I don't call you out very often but I feel it is appropriate for your last set of comments.
I work for an Insurance Company that writes several billion dollars of premium and employs over 1000 people. I work on the Finance Team and have a hand in the majority of the reporting that Executive Management sees. So I can tell with a great deal of certainty that Management does not follow job polls. They follow the trends in their business and use those trends to determine which decisions make sense.
The most critical job a manager does is make decisions. A large part of that is framing issues and gathering information.
Beyond this though is the simple logic of profit motive. A manager would be an outright fool to get rid of staff when the job reports head south. Indeed, if your business is strong you want to keep your talent and pick off the best and brightest from the firms around you that are failing. Other options might be buying up a dying competitor at a discount. That is what strong well managed companies do in tough times.
Many of the issues we see today have their roots in inefficient structures that are forced on the free market by external forces, most notably the Federal Government. The housing mess is owed in no small part to the politically (as opposed to economically) motivated actions of FNMA and FHLMC. (Fannie/Freddie) This was exasperated by an accommodative interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve's FOMC under Alan Greenspan. Profit Motive failed when Bankers drank the government kool-aid. The managers of those banks should have been fired. (My firm is owned by a larger firm that was very prudent during this time) Then what happened? The Government bailed them out. Whether it be through shadow funding via AIG or the TARP program. What is the net result? Inefficiency persists in the Free Market. Poor decision makers keep their jobs and continue to make poor decisions because government prevented creative destruction from happening. Instead of business evolving it was encouraged to stay on a path the market has already proven to be flawed.
Inefficiency begets uncertainty. Uncertainty increases risk and unmitigated risk is the enemy of capital.
Of course this is just one cog in the wheel of our current recession. The others are excessive taxation, inefficient government spending, a heavy debt burden, and overall a high level of slack demand.
I have been saying for a while that Tax Cuts and prudence in Washington are the answers. Government's share of GDP should be going down, not up."
Point well taken, oh Orange Section. But I will stand by my words. Wal-Mart, the biggest retailer in the world, has a hiring freeze on. What do you suppose the other retailers are doing, and the miners, and the boys in the oil and gas industry, the loggers, the builders, the tech companies, are all doing? They are getting leaner. I look for this trend to continue. Oh, yeah, and have you noticed that the prices for appliances have gotten to be pretty reasonable lately?
It's a depression we are in. And yes, it is different this time. We have an interventionist government now. But that won't keep us from a slow, glacial melt. That is what will be diffent. We won't see a rebound, just a long drawn-out slide lower. Because no one living has ever seen such a thing, very few people will recognize it for what it is for a very long time.
February 9, 2010
The Herd Instinct
We associate that idea most often with folks who trade stocks, or even with the
leaders of the financial industry. But really, it infects all of business.
It's about jobs, stupid
Business presidents watch the job numbers like hawks...and then react in
unison. That is a fact which exacerbates any downturn in the economy.
They see job numbers decline and they react by 'getting leander and meaner'. That
is, they reduce their forces, they lay off, they early-retire. Hiring freezes are
litterally the norm right now. Natural attrition alone is reducing work forces. The
layoffs just speed the process. Since all of the Corporate presidents are
doing the same thing, that leaves fewer and fewer people left with paychecks to
spur a consumer-driven rebound. And since the consumers account for some seventy
percent of the economy, reducing their numbers is generally a really bad idea.
Computer/Tech sales up - in a bad economy
I suppose that would have been a heartening sign once. It is not now. When tech does
well as employment is in the toilet that is a really bad sign. Why? It means that
company presidents are getting their companies even leaner - that machines being ordered
now are meant to replace workers who are about to be laid off. When it comes to tech,
a slowdown now would be a harbinger of a rebound six months off. So far, nothing is
on the horizon....tech is doing really well.
Here is a link to 'Businesses Reduced Inventories in December', by the ASSOCIATED PRESS on
NYTimes.Com. Suprised?
...................
Here is a copy of a letter-to-the-editor I sent off to my local newspaper:
"Editor:
Last February 6 the CST featured a commentary written by U.S. Senator Enzi, in which he
proposed helping small business by extending a tax cut for research and development.
On the first reading Senator Enzi's proposal seems to make sense. But I ask the average
citizen of Wyoming how much research his local rancher is doing, or his local restaurant,
his local auto parts store, or his local clothing store? These are small businesses.
Something less than one percent of all small businesses do research. Who does research
in a big way? Big businesses and universities do it. Funding for it comes from two
sources: the federal government and big business. So, if Enzi were to get what he says
he wants who will benefit, small business or big business?
Is Senator Enzi trying to help his friends in big business while trying to make it seem
like he's trying to help someone else?"
February 8, 2010
Here is a note from Rich Kolon.
"An article by Gretchen Morganson in NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/business/economy/07gret.html
The government made a big mistake bailing out banks. They should have bailed out the average joe himself.
The banks that owned crap would fail. But bailing out the average joe would have kept more mortgages off the in-danger list.
Say the Fed gave every taxpaying household $5000. The cost might be about $600 billion. Some of that money might go right back into the economy, if not to pay down some mortgage debt.
Now what are we stuck with? Multi-trillion dollar deficits for years on end?
We already see what happened when you bail out the rich. They give themselves multi-million dollar bonuses. Then they lay you off and sent the money to some foreign country, which keeps foreign workers on the payrolls. Then they rub the American laborers' nose by importing cheap foreign labor.
What to do about the depositors at those failed banks? Print some currency and replace their accounts.
What about the inflation that would cause? Not much. Those were savings. The replacement money would likely stay as savings at another bank.
What stinks is the banks are still trying to gouge the borrowers out of house and home, and they are encouraged to continue with dishonest accounting to cover up the truth. It doesn't solve the problem. It rewarded the people who created the mess.
Rich"
Rich, what you say is what I have been thinking all along.
And here is another from Rich.
From Red and White D comes this note.
"Remember the old bromide, there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics.
Did a little looking after I read the post from Minyanville about labor stats.
A short tutorial on how BLS plays with numbers:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/unemployment-report-distortions/24080
And, a set of alternative stats.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
The source data for the second is only revealed to subscribers so who knows what tomfoolery he may be up to. But, it is interesting to look at and likely correct.
That information knob on the government's control panel is getting a good workout."
Red and White D also sends along this link to the wisdom of Gerry Spence. If Dick Cheney is the most
unpopular of people from my fair State of Wyoming, think of Spence as the antidote.
http://gerryspence.wordpress.com/2008/12/29/our-trip-down-turd-river/
February 5, 2010
Here are two related articles by Mike Mish Shedlock on Minyanville.Com.
Keep your eye on the ball, folks. Let the numbers speak to you.
February 2, 2010
Here are links to two very grim articles.
Here is a link to
'Housing, Banking Woes Point to Double-Dip Recession', by Richard Suttmeier on Minyanville.Com.
I quote the article below.
"We began this economic mess in 2007 when our banking regulators said
subprime mortgage loan problems wouldn't spread to the real economy.
Now we have a worse economic condition with Adjustable Rate and Negative
Amortization Mortgages within their re-set windows. These loans are too
far underwater to be helped by mortgage modification programs.
Recent housing data for both existing and new-home sales were horrific
and ignored by the FOMC in last week's Fed Statement. Community and
regional banks are falling like dominoes as bad loans cascade on and off
bank balance sheets. This wave is worse than the subprime era, and
plants the seeds for the double-dip recession."
Here is a link to
'The Statistical Recovery Has Arrived', by John Mauldin on Minyanville.Com.
I quote the article below.
"While rebuilding inventories is a very good thing, that growth will only
continue if sales grow. Otherwise inventories will find the level of the
New Normal and stop growing. And if you look at consumer spending in the
data, you find that it actually declined in the fourth quarter, both
annually and from the previous quarter. 'Domestic demand' declined from
2.3% in the third quarter to only 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Part of
that is clearly the absence of Cash for Clunkers, but even so that isn't
a sign of economic strength.
Second, as my friend David Rosenberg pointed out, imports fell over the
fourth quarter. Usually in a heavy inventory-rebuilding cycle, imports
rise because a portion of the materials businesses need to build their
own products comes from foreign sources. Thus the drop in imports is most
unusual. Falling imports - - which is a sign of economic retrenching --
also increases the statistical GDP number.
... if you believe the GDP data -- remember, there are more revisions to
come -- then you de facto must be of the view that productivity growth is
soaring at over a 6% annual rate. No doubt productivity is rising -- just
look at the never-ending slate of layoff announcements. But we came off a
cycle with no technological advance and no capital deepening, so it is
hard to believe that productivity at this time is growing at a pace that
is four times the historical norm. Sorry, but we're not buyers of that
view. In the fourth quarter, aggregate private hours worked contracted at
a 0.5% annual rate and what we can tell you is that such a decline in
labor input has never before, scanning over 50 years of data, coincided
with a GDP headline this good.
Normally, GDP growth is 1.7% when hours worked is this weak, and that is
exactly the trend that was depicted this week in the release of the
Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which was widely ignored. On the
flip side, when we have in the past seen GDP growth come in at or near a
5.7% annual rate, what is typical is that hours worked grows at a 3.7%
rate. No matter how you slice it, the GDP number today represented not
just a rare but an unprecedented event, and as such, we are willing to
treat the report with an entire saltshaker -- a few grains won't do.
...What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises
is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When
countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When
debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably
are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis
that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite.
...It typically takes years to work off excess leverage in a banking crisis,
with unemployment often rising for four years running."
And here is a link to a gem of an article titled
'The Global Debt Crisis in Nine Slides', by Peter Atwater on Minyanville.Com.
February 1, 2010
From Keith comes this link to
'Where is the next bubble going to burst? I bet on China', by Avner Mandelman on TheGlobeAndMail.Com.
I quote the article below.
"Similar to my views, Mr. Chanos states that China has huge overcapacity
in almost every sector - he's convinced that many of the official stats
are hooey. For example, he points out that the huge reported jump in car
sales can't possibly jibe with the low growth in gasoline consumption.
He is sure that state-run companies are buying millions of cars and
storing them - just as they did with appliances and metals before the
Chinese market dived 70 per cent in 2008. And he quotes eyewitness
testimonies of empty malls and factories, not reported in the press.
...So why do I think the fizzle-out is near?
For the following reasons: First, just two weeks ago China told its banks
to lend less - evidently its leaders understand the bubble must burst, and
prefer this to happen from a lower height. If the U.S. Federal Reserve had
ordered U.S. banks to lend less, the Dow would melt. When it's China, no
one seems to care. Yet.
Second, a month ago China walked away from contract talks with Potash Corp.
and other producers, as the country demanded what the company called an
unrealistically low price. Such a walkout has not happened before. Can it
be that the Chinese negotiators knew their economy would be weaker, so
they'd need less potash later and could pay less?
Third, there are signs the Chinese leadership is getting really scared of
its own people. Besides Soviet-style pervasive media and Internet censorship,
China recently forbade the showing of the movie Avatar. Apparently, 'natives
fighting exploiters' is too close to what the Chinese authorities are doing
to landed peasants. A government fearing an uprising sparked by a movie?
Would you invest there?"
From Ben Smith comes this link to a much more positive article:
http://www.cotstimer.blogspot.com/.
Here is a note from Rich Kolon
"Bender
Scroll down about 3/4ths of the page in this link to see the chart entitled
Mutual Fund Cash Levels. Note the peaks in the Dow Jones Index during the last
decade and the corresponding cash levels. Another indication that supports my
contention that we just seen the market top in January 2010, as also suggested
by my QQQQ 20-week signal. Do not ignore that signal!
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm
Rich"
January 29, 2010
Here is a link to
'The FOMC Ignores Weak Housing', on Minyanville.Com. This says exactly what I have been
thinking of late. I quote the article below.
"The Fed says that economic activity continues to strengthen and that
is viewed as a positive by traders around the world. Then they say that
the deterioration in the labor market is abating when 43 states say
that unemployment is rising.
...How strong can the economy be when bank lending is contracting, and
with this situation how can they predict that there will be a gradual
return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price
stability? With gasoline prices higher than all of 2009, with defaults
and foreclosures rising, the Fed is turning its back to Main Street USA.
If the Fed believed that the US economy is coming out of recession, why
do they feel compelled to keep the federal funds at 0 to 0.25% when we
know that this giveaway is the fuel Wall Street is using to keep their
proprietary desks in a speculative mode? A 3% funds rate can help Main
Street and the Fed would still be accommodating. The Fed continues to
lack confidence that their policy will work."
If we are really doing so well, why not raise interest rates?
..................
Here is a note from Red and White D.
Bender,
I may be wrong, but to my knowledge the idea of a government
seriously dabbling in and attempting to manipulate the economy
of a country is a very new idea which has it's roots in Marxism
and the idea of class warfare. Up until 1900 or so it was
Laissez-faire as long as the sovereign got it's cut. How the
money was made was left to business.
Sovereigns of the past really had no interest in economies except
as they impacted their ability to conduct foreign policy, that is
to finance and wage wars. It wasn't until the Russian revolution
that governments started making serious attempts to manipulate
economies for political purposes, which is what we are seeing
here in the U.S. now.
I read the GDP article you posted and it came to me that we are
living in the middle of a big experiment. No one knows how it
will come out and the result may not be understood for many many
years. Social and economic engineering are new kids on the block.
Those in control of the handles of power are tweaking every screw
and knob, including especially the information knob, trying to
figure out how to make the most politically from the economy.
Que sera sera."
And here is a note from the Orange Section.
Bender,
I read your comments. I am out of the market aside from a few shares
in GLD, but what really frightens me is the cost that our political
leadership has imposed on cash. With current interest rates being at
0.25% holding cash is essentially a losing proposition when you take
into account inflation. This is the real insult to private savings,
our leadership has made it cost money to be prudent. I think this is
part of what is driving the market. If it costs money to be conservative
it creates incentive to take risks in the market. Obvious one could
question the wisdom of that relationship, but it is an influence.
Bernanke is only part of the problem. The real issue, IMO is Washington
DC. The Fed is a juicy target for investors given the past 30 years of
conditioning with regards to interest rates and their impact on financial
markets. However, a lot of what the FED is doing is financial engineering
to allow the Obama administration to do things like quadruple the deficit
and vastly increase the Federal Debt. We are now at risk of something
called seinorage, which I have to admit to not fully understanding. From
what I recall it has to do with the Central Bank essentially creating money
to loan to the Central Government. Functionally that is what happened in 2008.
The only reason that we haven't seen a massive spike in inflation is because
in the grand scheme of the world economy, the US is still "special" and doesn't
have to play by the rules. Bernanke's gambit was to "promise" the markets that
the Fed would deflate their balance sheet to prevent inflation. Currently Wall
Street has bought the promise.
There are a lot of rumblings that the Fed is going to unwind their balance
sheet in March. My guess is that a lot of this has to do with Politics. This
time last year it was all about being with Obama. Now after a year of Tea
Parties, protest, and the Massachusetts Miracle Obama's circle is no longer
some place you want to be. I think this will represent the most significant
market event of 2010, but I am not sure how to play it. A risky move would be
to buy some April and May puts. A conservative move would be to stay in cash
and buy at the bottom. I'll be taking the latter option in my 401K since I do
not have a means to play the short side in that account.
At the end of the day though this is about our national leadership. Most people
who know anything about business or economics can tell you what is wrong and
what needs to be fixed. Yet we keep electing candidates who are functionally
inept in these areas. I don't mean to be harsh, but in a democracy this is the
fault of the voter. We need to start sending better people to represent us and
to start expecting higher quality leadership."
January 27, 2010
Here is a link to
'The Truth Behind GDP', by James Anderson of Minyanville.Com.
I quote it below.
"As you can see, the birth/death model created jobs every month in
2009 except January. During that time frame, the unemployment rate
went from 7.4% at the end of 2008 to 10.0% at the end of 2009. If
you find that small businesses managed to create net jobs all
those months hard to believe, welcome to the club."
Here is a link to
'What I Would Do as Fed Chairman', by Richard Suttmeier of Minyanville.Com.
I quote it below.
"As an outsider with no ties to Congress, a political party, or to
any member of the FOMC Board of Governors, my first step is to admit
the Fed mistakes and raise the federal funds rate to 3%. I want to
support the dollar, flatten the yield curve, and preemptively cut
the risk of inflation.
I want to give Americans on Main Street higher interest rates on
savings and money markets. I have always opined that in the US a
federal funds rate below 3% was never a prudent monetary policy
choice. This might finally provide an incentive for increased
consumer spending.
...The Jobless Rate Rose in 43 States in December -- Forty-three
states reported higher unemployment rates in December, which to
me is a resounding warning that the US economy lacks traction.
With 600,000 leaving the work force in December the unemployment
rate is worse than reported.
Barney Frank, a champion of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE),
now wants to abolish them. As readers know, I favored the
liquidation of Fannie and Freddie months before the US Treasury
took them over in Conservatorship. I suggested beefing up the
government-backed Ginnie Mae mortgage program, while gradually
liquidating Fannie and Freddie debt and mortgages. Instead, US
taxpayers are on the hook for $111 billion and counting and will
be covering all GSE losses through 2012, leaving a lifeline
that could be double the current $400 billion."
Here is a link to
'We Can't Spend Our Way Out of a Debt Bubble', by Mike Mish Shedlock of Minyanville.Com.
I quote it below.
"This idea of Keynesian 'priming the pump' has never worked and it never will.
Japan and its national debt to the extent of 200% of GDP should be proof enough.
The only thing that can possibly work is the write off of bad debts --
something both the administration and the Fed are reluctant to do. We can
either do this now, or drag it out for two decades like Japan, only to end
up deeper in debt.
What ended the Great Depression -- and let's hope it doesn't come to that
again -- was WWII and the destruction of capacity everywhere but the US.
Spending $5 trillion dollars wouldn't do a thing now, other than wreck the
dollar and create another bubble. Repeat after me: It's impossible to spend
one's way out of a debt bubble.
Given that it's impossible, it's pointless to try. Thus the real lesson of
1937 is 'don't blow debt bubbles in the first place.'
January 24, 2010
Here is a link to
'If Bills Fail, a Quandary for Insurers', by Reed Abelson of NYTimes.Com.
I quote it below.
"'People are still being crowded out of the market because they can't afford it,'
said Sheryl R. Skolnick, a health care analyst for Pali Capital in New York.
If the health overhaul is indeed dead, she said, the critical question becomes
'how do you grow these businesses?'
The insurers say they understand the need for change in their business,
particularly so they can offer more affordable coverage to people who must
buy insurance on their own and are in poor health.
'There are legitimate, real issues that aren't going away that we need to
address,' said Ronald A. Williams, the chief executive of Aetna, one of
the big for-profit insurers."
Here is a link to
'Three Faces of Market Danger', by Paul J. Lim of NYTimes.Com.
....................
I was out for coffee with the boys yesterday. The subject turned to the enormous
U.S. debt. Lar reminded us of a sobering fact: Of all the capital in the world right
now, the U.S. has borrowed 80 percent of it. How willing will the holders of the remaining
20 percent be to lend us the other 20 percent? We think there will be great reluctance,
long term, for foreigners to buy U.S. bonds. And the FED can not keep being the only
buyer at the auction. So, how does our government solve the debt problem?
There are only Four Ways Out.
1. Default on the Debt - This is the worst solution, and it would plunge the world into
financial chaos.
2. Raise Taxes - This is the worst way to revive a struggling economy. Long-term, it
might sober both government and citizens enough to get both off the credit wagon. For this
solution to succeed we would have to substitute increased productivity for increased borrowing.
Business, particularly big business would have to cooperate by ceasing to export jobs.
3. Borrow More - Really? From whom?
4. Print Money - Dillute the Value of the Dollar - This is the option most favored by Congress.
Old debts can be repaid with newly printed 'funny money'. This, of course, wipes out savings.
Saving are something the FED has been urgently trying to kill anyway. Low interest rates are
inflationary/reinflationary and a hammer blow against savings.
The approach to this crisis, taken by both administrations and 'Bubble Boy' Bernanke, has been
trying to reinflate the bubble - kind of a 'I want my bubble back' mentality. Every month Bubble Boy
keeps hammering away at savings, trying to eliminate them altogether.
January 22, 2010
Here is a link to
'Confidence Sliding on Main Street', by Richard Suttmeier of Minyanville.Com.
I quote it below.
"The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index slumped to 15 in
January on continued concerns about the weak jobs market and the increasing number
of foreclosure sales. Community banks are reluctant to lend to builders and
developers as nearly 3,000 banks are overexposed to C&D and CRE loans. Because
of this, homebuilders have thinned inventories and slowed new construction.
Remember that a reading of 50 is neutral for this index and at 15 it's a sign
of a housing depression. [Bolding is by the Bender]
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index fell to -49 last week, down eight points
since the beginning of 2010. This index is approaching the recession and record
low reading of -54, set a year ago. 45% of Americans say their personal
finances are positive, which is below 50% for 75 of the past 78 weeks, another
record by far. Only 33% say it's a good time to spend, which is 14 points below
average, and only 9% rate the economy positively, 29 points below average.
...The Federal Housing Administration is making it tougher for homeowners to get
a mortgage by raising fees and tightening lending standards. The FHA is losing
money as the foreclosure rate rises. As a result, its reserves have fallen below
the minimum required by Congress. This should cause yet another drag on housing
as they insure 30% of all new loans, and the FHA is the largest backer of
mortgages for first-time buyers. The FHA only requires a 3.5% down payment,
but now requires an upfront mortgage insurance premium of 2.25% from 1.75%,
which can be a deal breaker. Borrowers with a credit score below 580 must put
10% down. More than 18% of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or
in foreclosure compared to 14% for all mortgage loans."
Here is a link to
'From the Relationship Era to the Breakup Age', by Peter Atwaterr of Minyanville.Com.
I quote it below.
"As I measure it, though, the Relationship Era peaked back in 2007 -- for as
the markets topped, risk reduction was easily seen in the record profit margins
of most corporations and banks.
But I think Peggy Noonan is right, we're now on the other side. We're living
in the Breakup Age. She sees it in the political arena. I see it in the
deteriorating relationships between consumer borrowers and the banks.
But if strong global relationships manifested themselves in high margin/low
risk earnings, I think it reasonable to expect far lower margins and much
greater risk as we morph from 'We are the world' to 'Breaking up is hard to do.'"
This is important. I will add this to my list of General Trends. It will become: #15 Easy and existing
relationships, between retailer and consumer, banker and customer, lender and
borrower, debtor nation and creditor nation, etc. will be under greater and greater
strain as those relationships strain and break.
Here is a link to
'Obama Calls for Limiting Size, Risk-Taking of Financial Firms', by Nicholas Johnston
and Julianna Goldman on Bloomberg.Com. I quote it below.
"Volcker initially had trouble getting traction for his views within the administration.
He visited nine cities in five countries between October and mid-December of 2009 as
he advocated changes.
Obama signed onto the concept in mid-December, according to a White House aide.
Volcker attended a White House meeting Dec. 23 with Geithner and Summers to discuss
details. Prior to the meeting, Obama had already approved of separating proprietary
trading and banking. Geithner and Summers expressed concern that this would be a
diversion from other regulatory proposals, the aide said."
........................
Here are three notes from regulars to this site.
This first note is actually two notes sent by Rich Kolon recently.
"Bender,
Money supply continues to fall off a cliff, thanks to banks trying to wipe out
as many homeowner borrowers as possible, with the government aiding and abetting
the bankers."
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
And from another note:
"Now that I am at a 2+ year high in my major stock accounts, this tilts me towards
the idea of selling some stocks, and just being grateful for the ride these last nine
months since I got laid off.
Even my latest purchase of CIWT.OB early this week is up over +24% already.
My experience tells me that when the accounts start zooming up, you likely have
no more than a month before a correction hits. [Bolding is by the
Bender]
Rich"
Indeed, Rich, one thing traders/investors should be looking at all the time is how
their overall portfolio is doing. When it seems to be at an extreme high, major selling
may be in order.
From the Orange Section comes these comments.
"Bender,
I've been reading your recent commentary. From a market point of view I wonder if
we are not setting up for a crash. I know that is a risky position to take, but it
strikes me that the table is being set. I am tempted to buy a bunch of out of the money puts...
From a more economic point of view. I really think there are two core issues that
must be addressed before recovery can occur:
1.) Reduce Uncertainty
2.) Resolve Slack Demand
I think the first item is pretty obvious. If business has additional reason to shun
risk, then it will be more risk adverse. Government needs to stop propagating the
myth of evil corporations and start taking a stance that is more business friendly.
The second one is I think critical, especially on the jobs front. One might argue
that by fixing the jobs issue you would resolve the demand problem, but I think
that is overly simplistic. A major reason we have double digit unemployment is
because demand is down. So yes adding jobs would add consumption, but if
consumption itself is down, then this solution would seem to ignore parts of the
problem. I have long advocated tax cuts and I think there has never been a better
time for them. If we want to get American Enterprise going, ie if we want to
stimulate the economy, then we need to find a way to give it more money.
Since Roosevelt much of our public policy has been geared towards the idea
stimulating the economy spending more money, but it has come via the Government
checkbook not the consumer. I think this view needs to be discarded. The Cobb-Douglas
function states Y-C+I+G+(X-M) and thus implies that G is just as good as C.
However as any layperson knows, government spending or "G" is horribly inefficient.
I think Cobb-Douglas function should have a factor for efficiency. Consumers
produce GDP on a dollar for dollar basis. I would content that Government might
produce $1 dollar of effective output for ever $10 or $20 it spends. Maybe even
less. (One could argue that the I or Interest Income might be a partial offset to
G and C due to debt. As I have said before, Macroeconomics does not effectively
account for Debt in its models.)
There has never been a better time to cut taxes. Give consumers more money to
spend and don't expect results right away. People have debt to pay down. Give
them more money to pay it down and then you will see money start flow back into
the economy as debt burdens are reduced. This will lead to growth in demand and more jobs.
Right now Washington DC seems to think it fix our problems for us. I would argue
that every dollar they confiscate makes things worse, not better."
Yes, Orange Section, cutting taxes would make a lot of sense right now. But that
would be a measure that would help the broadest number of Americans. Neither party
seems to be thrilled with doing that. It's the special interests that line their
pockets, not you and me.
Methinks your second point (Resolve Slack Demand) will be a very tough nut for
this government to crack.
Your comment about a possible down market is in line with my own thinking. I am
not sure about a crash, but a serious dip is possible here. We know, or think we
know, that the FED is going to stop priming the pump in March. If you are going
to take advantage of that, here is what you should do...and particularly this is
aimed at Red and White D...
1. Sell portions of your holdings to free up cash. Do that now and next week. Keep
doing that if the markets keep falling through February.
2. Start nibbling at the short funds, no more than 1 percent of your cash on any
day. The short funds are at nearly historic lows and the FED move is looming on
the horizons. Eventually even the big traders will catch on. When they do, the
move down will be on in a big way. Keep nibbling at those short funds through February.
Have at least 5 percent to 25 percent of all your cash in them by the end of February.
That is what I am thinking should be done by the prudent trader/investor. The important
thing is to do it in small, palatable bites over a period of time - time that we
definitely have right now. And do not be a piggy. Don't move too much money into
the shorts. If a serious dip happens you need to have kept at least 75 percent of
all your cash on the sidelines to buy bargains.
If, in February or March, the markets seem to be stampeding down the hill, don't ride
them down. Get out!
Here is a note from Red and White D.
January 19, 2010
Here is a link sent by Keith to
'Can both the economists and strategists be right?', by David Rosenberg of
TheGlobeAndMail.Com. I quote it below.
"Forget all the calculations off the 'artificial' March lows. Forget the
25-per-cent market slide in the first 10 weeks of the year to that awful
trough. Here is the reality: The S&P 500, from point to point, rallied 23
per cent in 2009 even though earnings per share for the year as a whole
came in at a whopping $21 less than first estimated.
Now that is remarkable. It almost wants to make you believe in the tooth fairy.
We are sure that if we told you on Dec. 31, 2008, that the market was
looking for $77 on operating EPS for 2009, but $56 is all we would muster,
you wouldn't have told us that your forecast for the S&P 500 at year-end
would be 1,115 points. And here we are today, and the same consensus crew
is calling for just about the same level of earnings again - this time
for 2010."
Here is a link to
'When the Fed Stops the Music', by John Mauldin of Minyanville.Com. I
quote it below.
"There's just so much that's uncertain, and all we can do is wait to see how it
unfolds. My best guess is that we see a solid GDP number posted for the fourth
quarter (which will get revised down over time), due mostly to stimulus and
inventory rebuilding. By the middle of the year, the stimulus will be far less.
And while inventories are rebuilding and that's good for the GDP numbers, the
sales-to-inventories number hasn't risen. And final demand is what drives
inventory rebuilding.
The latter half of the year looks to be weaker, and then we hit what right now
looks like the largest tax increase in history, much of it on the small
businesses that are the drivers of job creation. The National Federation of
Independent Businesses just released their latest survey. It was brutal.
There's little optimism in it.
The Fed is going to stop the music in March. There will be a scramble for the
chairs. This is a huge experiment with no precedent. The entire developed world
is the test subject. Risk assets will be subject to uncertainty. And markets
hate uncertainty.
Hopefully, we can muddle through this year before a relapse into recession in 2011
(because of the tax increase). I wish I could see it like Larry Kudlow, but I don't.
I would be very cautious about being long the stock market. It's now a trader's
market. I wouldn't be buying long-duration bonds. It's still an absolute-return world."
.............................
Here is a link to my new page on General Trends
I have been spotting. I am going to keep adding to this page, as time allows.
Below are two of the General Trends I have already
spotted.
1.Financial Companies have been making their primary profits by feeding upon their customers, thus devouring the gooses that layed the golden eggs.
10. Buy and hold is dead.
When one looks at both trends together, they paint an ugly picture of the future. If buy and hold
is dead, and everyone who wants to retire someday is going to have to start gaming the system, then
these individuals, quite often unprepared to play the markets, will have to elbow their way to the
crap tables and bet against the likes of their own retirement funds and real pros like Goldman. That
will be a daunting task. Most will fail at it. Retirement, for most Americans, has just become
unaffordable, whether they realize it or not.
January 15, 2010
Here are links to several articles on Minyanville.Com:
'The Three-Pronged Attack on the Fed', by Mike Mish Shedlock. I quote it
below.
"The problem is, Bernanke places his complete faith in such gibberish, so much
so that he's lost all sense of real-world action by real people. The result is,
he can't see a housing bubble that was obvious to anyone using common sense."
'Everything You Need to Know About the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission', by Kevin Depew. I quote it below.
We like our stories told linearly because that corresponds with how we
experience the world. But reality doesn't care for how we prefer our
stories to unfold. The debt crisis, the collapse of real estate prices,
the embrace, and subsequent rejection of seemingly complex and highly
engineered finance products all emerged from a peak positive trend in
social mood.
A positive social mood trend causes businessmen to become more optimistic,
causes the public to embrace risk, speculate more, and overestimate the
amount of debt they can service, and ultimately foments the creation and
availability of derivatives that make perfect sense at the time. Only
after the social mood trend peaks do derivatives and speculation seem
outrageously complex and dangerous."
'Quietly, a Top Seems to Be Forming', by James Kostohryz.
'Where Have All the Jobs Gone?', by Richard Suttmeier.
I quote it below. The bolding is my own.
"According to the Labor Department, there are 6.4 unemployed workers for each
available job opening. That’s up from 6.1 in October and a record high for
this statistic. Job openings fell to 2.42 million in November from 2.57
million in October. Put into perspective, the peak in job openings was 4.8
million in June 2007. This is an additional woe for Main Street. Layoffs
may be declining, but hiring doesn't pick up. So where are the jobs created
or saved?"
Here is a link to 'Inflation in Check, but Spending Power Wanes', by Javier C. Hernandez on NYTimes.Com. I quote it below.
"Though prices are not rising rapidly, many Americans are seeing their spending
power wane: weekly paychecks, adjusted for inflation, fell 1.6 percent last year
- the largest decline since 1990 - as employers cut back on hours and reduced
salaries, the government said."
Ben Smith sends this link to
'Marc Faber's 2010 Investment Outlook: Bullish Sentiment Too High For His Liking', by
Peter Gorenstein on Yahoo.Com.
Finally, Rich Kolon sends this note.
"At the link below click on the 2-Years choice for the Investors Intelligence survey chart
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
The Bull-Bear split is near two year highs now. While I have seen higher numbers of Bulls
in my times, the Bears percentage is very low.
The current readings are 48.3% Bulls and 16.9% Bears. This article briefly discusses
recent extremes in the I.I. survey.
http://ca.us.biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/091229/484_id.html?.v=1
Note that I.I. survey is better at timing bottoms rather than tops, so I would not
use this indicator in isolation.
Some people use the ratio between the Bull_bear numbers as an indicator. Last week,
the ratio was 3.28. This is historically high and is another indicator that stocks are
overbought.
For a 2004 discussion of this indicator, you can read this:
http://web.streetauthority.com/terms/i/investorsintelligence.asp
Bull market highs tend to be in the mid 50s, but I have seen over 60% Bulls on
rare occasions.
L
I am inserting this link I just found, though I do not know if this page changes
content often. So if you want to keep it, print it.
http://www.bearishnews.com/post/category/bear
It points out that "Only 15.6% of financial newsletters are currently bearish on
equities. Last time the bearish indicator was this low was April 1987. A few months
later (Black Monday) the DJIA dropped 21% in a single day".
That day was in October, 1987.
From a contrarian view, and this is one of those types of indicators, it appears the
stock market is well overbought short term.
Today I also noticed that the ratio of equity puts over equity calls went down
to a rather low number. 891,442 / 1,830,998 = 0.4868. That's more than two calls
being purchased for every put purchased.
Looking at historic data :
http://www.cboe.com/publish/ScheduledTask/MktData/datahouse/equityPC.csv
This is the lowest ratio since October 14-15, 2009. That time period was just
before the last minor correction in the stock market, as you can see in the SPY chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91058887254
This suggests to me that option expiration week will see a drop in the stock market,
to make those calls worthless. That is the week of Jan 11-15, 2010, this coming week.
Now that I am at a 2+ year high in my major stock accounts, this tilts me towards
the idea of selling some stocks, and just being grateful for the ride these last
nine months since I got laid off.
Even my latest purchase of CIWT.OB early this week is up over +24% already. My
experience tells me that when the accounts start zooming up, you likely have no
more than a month before a correction hits.
Rich"
January 15, 2010
I want to ask for my readers' patience. I have been through an extremely busy time in my life.
My job keeps me physically active. I have lost 60 pounds in the past year. The past 10 days
have been busier than ever at work, and that leaves me pretty tired. In the meantime, I have
completed all the chapters on the book I have been writing for two years and am now 75% done on
the illustrations I am doing for it. I try to keep up on my reading and email. I try to keep
up on my two online sites. Thanks for coming back here for enlightenment. I will try to provide
more in the future.
Links to older commentary:
News 89, 12-16-09 to ?
News 89, 10-18-09 to 12-04-09
News 89, 08-10-09 to 10-09-09
News 88, 06-01-09 to 08-05-09
News 87, 03-22-09 to 05-21-09
News 86, 02-23-09 to 03-19-09
News 85, 12-16-08 to 02-14-09
News 84, 09-30-08 to 12-15-08
News 83, 09-30-08 to 10-22-08
News 82, 08-08-08 to 09-29-08,
News 81, 06-18-08 to 08-03-08
News 80, 03-27-08 to 06-16-08
News 79, 02-03-08 to 03-24-08
News 78, 12-23-07 to 02-02-08
News 77, 11-16-07 to 12-20-07
News 76, 10-14-07 to 11-12-07
News 75, 08-19-07 to 10-10-07
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