The Bender Index

Email the
Bender

The Bender
Trends

Bender Paper
Portfolio

Richard Ney
Link

Reviews:
Lefevre
Leon Levy
Peter Lynch
Oneil
Toni Turner
Martin Zweig

Links Page

Richard Kolon

Jay
Steele

Your
Government
has been
lying to you
Data Page

Market Tops
The Bender's
Own High
Altitude
Gardening
Pages

...

Welcome to Bessemer Bend Stocks. Here you will discover a different approach to stocks and trading. This is not a commercial site. Nothing said here constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell securities. However, the Consitution does allow individuals to express opinions about companies and their securities. Investors and traders are strongly urged to make up their own minds and to trade in their own styles. Grownups are supposed to think for themselves.

Indicators

Long Term Medium Term Short Term

UP UP UP

QQQ 01-12-12
770 - 6% = 724 01-12-12
770 - 3% = 747

My System's Stocks:

INTERSTING LONGS | AAPL, QCOM, MON, KO, MO, ESI, PHK, VRSN, SEP, MGM, SPPI, MR, UPS, AET, ICE, WFC, JPM, XLF, GTU, SLV, SLW, GG, RGLD, VALE, RIO, SGY, COP, BNO, KMR, SJT, LNG, D, WPRT, EOG, STO, CHK

INTERSTING SHORTS | FAZ, SKF, BAC, GE, COF, C, RBS, DB, GS, MS, AGO, FSLR, PHM, DHI, ARR, SDS, QID, SRS, GLL, ZSL, DUG, EPV, GCI

STOCKS FROM MY SYSTEM | CCM, SOHU, TGA, UTHR, SVM, RFMD, BSFT, ORCL, RIO, WAT, IPHI, JCOM, SGY, ATW, BOX, SWKS, AET, IPI, CEVA, COP, SLW, CHKP, MR, OXY, BSX, MA

How the Economy Is Really Doing	\|	How the Markets Are Really Doing
ShadowStats.Com	\|	U.S. Offial CPI Inflation Calculator

Rich Kolon is not working on his pages right now. But his old stuff is quite educational.

Duncan sends this:

Jan. 22, 2011 - This latest Wave 5 will be equal to Wave 1 of the latest move since July 2010 when we top DJI 12,000. We will have then also completed a 5 count wave advance since March 2009. We can expect a sharp correction after that level is reached, but remember Wave 5's can extend further than the "rule of wave equality" if the market is extremely strong, which doesn't appear to be the case here. At best the correction will be severe but short and the market will continue the advance. At worse the current correction will be an extended B Wave and the correction since March 2009 will be a Zigzag 5-3-5 (both A and C Waves contain 5 counts) which will go sideways with the next C Wave making a slightly higher high above DJI 12,000. This may take all this year to complete. It is always a red flag when too many start agreeing with you on a market direction and must be taken as a contrary indicator.

Commentary

February 3, 2012

I have some links for you today.

From Ben Smith comes these links:

Here is a link to: 'Under Twist, the Fed Has Purchased 91% Long Dated US Treasurys', on ZeroHedge.Com.

Here is a link to: 'Stephen Roach Explains How the Fed is Pulling the Wool Over Our Eyes', on GrowthStockWire.Com.

Here is a link to: 'Bill Gross Explains Why Gold is Becoming the Default Store of Value', on CaseyResearch.Com.

Red and White D sends this link:

Here is a link to: 'Longest S&P 500 Valuation Slump Since Nixon Discounts Profit', on BusinessWeek.Com. From Rich Kolon comes this note:

'http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2012/01/income%20falling.jpg'

Note how growth in personal incomes occurred after each recessionary bottom.

Notice how that is not true so far in this economic downturn.

It's a Depression.

Personal Income is trending LOWER and NEGATIVELY in the 48 month moving average as of 2009.

That's what happens when corporate executives think of you as costs, rather than as creators of wealth. That's what happens when the crooks are rewarded for their thievery and mistakes.

That's what happens when the news talks about Dancing With The Stars, when you don;t demand the truth.

That's what happens when your country becomes a banana republic. Or as Russell Means said, "Welcome to the Reservation".

Rich"

Yes, Rich, it is a Depression.

February 1, 2012

NOTE: This site is not being worked on right now. My wife just had three vertibrae fused in her neck and that keeps me pretty busy. I hope to get stuff up later this week.

Fred Jacquot

January 22, 2012

I have links for you today. The first is to ' The Trouble With Private Equity Is Privilege Not Profits', on Bloomberg.Com. I quote the article below. Bolding is my own.

This is a new version of an old complaint, and the quality of the discussion is not improving with age. The question to ask about private equity - which involves taking over companies, restructuring them and selling them at a profit - is not whether it creates jobs. It is whether taxpayers should be subsidizing its practitioners' paychecks.

...They found that the acquired companies lost jobs at existing units but added jobs at new ones. Altogether, employment at companies bought by private-equity investors fell in the first two years by less than 1 percent relative to employment at similar companies.

More revealing than the net effect on jobs was gross employment turnover - jobs created plus jobs eliminated. This total was 13 percent higher for private-equity targets than the control group. In other words, companies bought by private equity both fired more people and hired more people. The study concluded that 'private equity buy-outs catalyze the creative destruction process.'"

Here are Three Other Links:

' Bad Year for Wall St. Not Reflected in Chiefs' Pay', on NYTimes.Com.

' Marc Faber Resumes Bloodfeud With Treasurys, Still Sees Entire Financial System Imploding', on ZeroHedge.Com.

' 4 Hour Dollar Chart Reveals Imminent SP-500 Correction ', on TheTSITrader.BlogSpot.Com.

And here is a link to ' An Investment Story That Will Save You Thousands of Dollars', on DailyWealth.Com. I quote the article below.

It was first described in the 1970s by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The pair discovered how people feel more pain taking losses than pleasure booking similar-sized gains."

January 18, 2012

Tobby Connor sends along this posting:

HAS GOLD'S D-WAVE BOTTOMED?

It seems like most analysts, and gold bugs are now assuming that the reversal on December 29 marked the bottom of golds D-Wave decline. It's certainly possible that we saw a bottom two weeks ago but it's still too early to make that assumption. Gold, and most assets are about to be severely tested. How gold handles that test will be a big clue as to whether or not the correction is over.

What many analysts are overlooking is the impending daily and intermediate cycle correction that is coming due in the stock market. When the stock market moves down into a cycle low, especially an intermediate cycle low, it generates a tremendous amount of selling pressure. Invariably that selling pressure bleeds into virtually every other asset class, even gold, as you can see in the chart below. Over the last two years there were only two daily cycle corrections in the stock market where gold was unaffected (I've marked them with green arrows).

The stock market is now in the timing band for a move down into a daily cycle low. As you can see in the chart below those tend to occur almost like clockwork about every 35 to 40 days. As of Friday the stock market was on day 33. On top of that we have a larger intermediate degree cycle that should bottom sometime in March/April. The selling pressure generated at an intermediate bottom is much more intense than a mere daily cycle low. That means sometime around the middle of March or early April things are going to be looking pretty bleak. My best guess is at that time interest rates will be spiking in France and maybe the UK (along with all of the other countries that are already having debt issues).

It's late enough in the daily cycle that there is a good chance the market began that move down into its daily cycle bottom on Friday, despite recovering most of the sell off before the close. I say that because we have a coil pattern playing out in the stock market.

Contrary to what most people believe, the initial break out of a volatility coil is usually a false move that is soon followed by a much more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction. In our case the volatility coil broke to the upside and by Friday it was already trying to reverse. Once the stock market moves back through the coil zone it would be very unlikely to recover those levels until after the next intermediate degree bottom, which like I pointed out isn't due until March/April.

Sometime in the next 4-8 days we should see the stock market break its cycle trend line. It's very rare for a move down into a daily cycle low not to break the cycle trend line. So for our purposes I think we can probably assume that it will.

If the stock market just retraces 50% of the daily cycle advance (assuming 1297 is the top) then we should see a pretty hefty sell off in the next week or two.

That kind of selling pressure will almost certainly have some affect on gold. If the D-Wave is still in progress it's going to have a sharp affect on gold, probably forcing gold back below the $1523 December bottom. How gold handles the stock market moving down into its daily cycle low will give us a big clue as to whether the D-Wave has bottomed or not.

And even stiffer test is going to occur as the stock market moves down into its intermediate bottom in March/April. If gold can't hold above $1523 as stocks move into a daily cycle low then it is going to get driven much lower during the intense selling pressure that will be generated when stocks move down into a larger degree intermediate bottom.

A couple of things to keep in mind.

The last C-wave was the greatest in both magnitude and duration of the entire secular bull market. Is it possible that a 2 1/2 year, 100%+ rally can be corrected with only a 38% retracement in four short months?

There is also the problem with the last intermediate cycle in gold running very short at only 13 weeks (normal duration is about 20-25 weeks). More often than not a short cycle is followed by a long cycle that evens out the next larger cycle. In this case the next larger cycle would be the yearly cycle.

If December 29th did mark an intermediate bottom then we would've had two intermediate cycles of only 13 weeks each. A short cycle followed by another short cycle is a pretty rare occurrence. In this case exceptionally so because the yearly cycle low isn't do until February/March. If I take into account nothing else I would have to assume that gold still has about 5 to 6 more weeks before the final D-Wave and yearly cycle low are formed.

That doesn't mean that gold has to drop a considerable distance below $1523. If it does turn out that gold continues lower into a more normal intermediate timing band I doubt that gold would move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is at about $1400. That also corresponds with the extensive consolidation zone in the summer of 2010.

One other thing to consider is the powerful correlation of a stronger dollar whenever the stock market moves down into a cycle low. We should continue to see the dollar spike higher over the next couple of weeks as the stock market drops down into its daily cycle trough, followed by a much more powerful rise during the intermediate degree decline due later in the spring. As you can see in the chart below gold has had little ability to resist a rising dollar.

So unless you think that the stock market will never drop down into a cycle low again, or that the market and the dollar will drop simultaneously (very unlikely), then gold is going to be everely tested as the dollar spikes sharply higher during the next few weeks and months as the stock market works its way down into first, a daily cycle low, and then a much more serious intermediate degree correction.

Right now investors need to be on the sidelines while we wait to see how gold handles the stock market's move down into its daily cycle low. If gold can hold above $1523 while the stock market suffers what is likely to be a rather sharp correction then the odds will improve dramatically that the D-Wave did in fact bottom in December.

If however gold follows the stock market down and breaches that $1523 pivot then the odds are very high that the D-Wave is still in progress and will not bottom until late February/mid-March.

I am currently still running the one week, $10 introductory offer for the SMT premium newsletter. Since we should see the stock market form its daily cycle low sometime in the next 1-2 weeks now would be a perfect time to sample the newsletter."

Rich Kolon sends these relevant notes:

''You now have international funds, whose compliance departments are saying to them, 'You can no longer trade on the Comex because the CME did not back client accounts.' There are a tremendous number of international funds and hedge funds that can no longer trade on the COMEX as of the first of this year because of compliance reasons and no one is talking about this. This is huge news.'

'The demand for euro gold here in London is so intense it's shocking to some of the players. This is what has left some market participants in the US wondering why the price of gold has risen along with the dollar. It's because demand in the eurozone is unimaginably strong. The euro physical gold demand is off the charts and it is creating shortages for metal, in size, here in London.'

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/17_ London_Trader_-_Staggering_Gold_Demand_Creating_Shortages.html

I can confirm that open interest is down on the Comex in gold and silver futures.

On August 4, 2011 the open interest in silver on the Comex was 120,385 contracts, and 529,403 contracts for gold.

On January 10, 2012, the open interest in silver on the Comex was only 104,325 contracts, and 417,923 contracts for gold.

That's a 13% drop in silver contracts and a 21% drop in gold contracts.

It makes sense that some traders may be avoiding the Comex because of the MF Global violation of the sanctity of customer accounts.

Seasonally, the dollar is strongest against other currencies in the month of January, compared to all other months. Yet gold has been heading higher this year at the same time. The explanation that overseas demand for gold, particularly from Europe, sounds credible. Ordinarily a stronger dollar coincides with lower gold prices. Not this year.

Statistics show that net purchases of gold in 2011 by central bankers around the world was at their greatest level in many decades.

Even some of the fiat printers are wising up. All con jobs must come to an end. Fiat currency is the ultimate con job."

........

"JS Kim Thinks Gold And Silver Going Higher

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/gold-silver-banker-cartel-prolonged-price-suppression-has-set-foundation-explosive-move-

Note the long term $GOLD and $SILVER charts, showing the 10-year uptrend in prices.

This is how you make the big profits. Take a long term theme. Get it right. And put your money where your long term theme points you.

And it is not over yet, folks!"

........

"Rolling Margin Debt Has Gone Negative.

David Rosenberg points out that rolling margin debt is no longer growing, and in fact has gone negative. This presaged two previous big downturns in the stock market this millenium.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/what-rosenberg-looking-rolling-margin-debt-has-gone-negative

This sounds intuitively correct. As less money is borrowed to boost stocks, demand goes down and prices would soon follow.

The next time the QQQ 20-week signal goes negative, pay attention. It still remains positive, currently.

Rich"

And here is a response to my 'Dune' comments of late from the Orange Section.

I think the TBTFBs are a symptom of the larger issue, not the cause. Consider that TBTFB requires something to give them that label and agree to bail them out. (some banks were forced to take Tarp btw, most notably WFC) Who was the entity that did the labeling and bailing out? Government. Who decided to let Lehman fail, but rescue AIG? Who was the counterpary on AIG's derivatives? Who donated heavily to a certain president's reelection? I think you get the point.

This to me presents why all of this is so misguided. Capitalism is not on trial, although we are being told it is. Capitalism requires creative destruction and thus the idea of 'Too Big to Fail' is anathema to it. What we are seeing is the product of corruption and cronyism, which fits your guild metaphor quite nicely. I would argue that the parasites are not just the banks, but also the beltway folks who feed off the same host. This is all about a merry go round of money between Washington and New York. A few non-capitalists want to keep their candy at the expense of everyone else.

I think there is an inclination to put a face to the issue and it is easier to attack a corporation because it is popular to do so. Indeed, many of them are quite guilty. However if we want to look for the root of the problem then we need to look in the District of Columbia and not lower Manhattan. This is the problem with OWS, it focuses on the corporations and allows itself to be used by the real roots of the issues as pawns.

We are also seeing many of the sacred cows in Economics be pushed to failure by Ben Bernanke at the same time as the cronyism between DC and NYC is at its peak. I don't know when it will all come crashing down, but they are past the point of going back into hiding. The question is how long it will take before things unravel for them. I suspect we need a new Fed Chairman who is told to fix the problem and not worry about the politics. I don't think DC is fixable over the short run."

Red and White D sends this link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-17/treasury-yield-is-20-basis- points-from-record-low-before-greek-debt-talks.html

January 16, 2012

Here is a link to 'Ford's December US Sales Rise 10% Led by Truck, Utility Sales', on Nasdaq.Com. I quote the article below.

Company-wide, truck-sales rose 28% while utility-vehicle sales increased 16%. Car sales slid 15% and heavy-truck sales were down 12%."

This was an easy bit of news to miss. But it is, I think, a very important bit of news. Why? It portends good things coming out of our economy in the coming year. Here is why I think so. Many industries, including delivery, construction, and especially mining and oil, have stick budgets. Most in the US have weathered the slowdown by not buying new trucks. But, the old ones need to be replaced. Because of the budgets, most of the companies in the industries above don't make decisions about new projects, or new equipment until December, the last month of the year. Then, when they do decide to spend, they do so very quickly, urgently even. Many an oil well could have been started in September, but didn't get started until December. The same goes with fleets of new trucks. A good portion of them get purchased in the same month that the decision gets made: December.

Here is a link to 'Why Stocks Could Jump 25%', on TopStockAnalysts.Com.

From Ben Smith comes this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNEp7q30JCw&feature=related

Warren Buffett on European Sovereign Debt Crisis...8-23-11...2 min 31 sec

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd_ihO28pgU&feature=related"

Red and White D sends this:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/story/2012-01-13/france-credit-rating-cut/52533684/1

When this happens in finance, the captain gets a bonus. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/14/italy-cruise-ship-captain_n_1206427.html?1326575859

Too Big to Fail

"The Guild is like a village beside a river. They need the water, but can only dip out what they require. They can not dam the river and control it, because that focuses attention on what they take, it brings down eventual destruction."

...from Frank Herbert's Dune

In Herbert's science fiction classic, Paul, the protagonist, is describing the Guild which needs the Spice that is only created on one planet, in order to guide the transports that constitute interplanetary travel, safely through the folds of space/time. The Spice, because it increases longevity, is the most valuable substance in the universe. The Guild's relationship to the rest of human society is parasitic. The Guild needs to feed off the host, but must keep the host (the rest of humanity) alive and well enough to tolerate the existence of the Guild. In exchange for access to the river (the Spice), the Guild performs a valuable service to the rest of humanity.

Is there a rational, logical comparison between Herbert's Guild and Too Big to Fail Banks (TBTFBs)? I believe that there is. Unlike the Guild, TBTFBs have not been wise enough NOT to draw attention to themselves. They have placed themselves in a spotlight which, were they wise, they would avoid at all costs. Further, TBTFBs have allowed their actions to shaddow or mimic the actions of the top one percent of income earners in the US. Not content to take a reasonable percent of GDP for their legitimate and vital services, the TBTFBs have spurred the whole Finance Industry to grow from 8 percent of GDP to 16 percent. Meanwhile, the average consumer is no better served than he was 40 years ago, perhaps he is even worse served when one considers the debacles the TBTFBs have thrown the economies of the world into. Then, the TBTFBs, like the one percent, overloaded with gall and testosterone, have done that which demands retribution/retaliation/reaction from the rest of us...the 99 percenters. They have bragged about their oversized greed, and rubbed it into our faces. What most conservative commentators don't get about the Occupy Wall Street movement is that it is but a symptom of change occurring in the gut level thinking of the middle class. The TBTFBs' hubris is so large, and so powerful, that it has rendered them blind to the dangers they face.

January 12, 2012

Willem Weytjens sends along this posting:

Nightly Report - Wednesday

I'm going to unlock this 'Nightly Report' for everybody, because I wanted to clarify some things for people who are calling me crazy for saying that the silver 'Bubble' might have burst. Two days ago, I wrote an article called 'Did The Silver Bubble Burst?'. I got many emails from people saying that this is nonsense, and that I should look at fundamentals instead of Technical charts. While that is partly true (trust me, I DO know that the fundamentals for both Gold and Silver have never been brighter), I think that one should not ignore the technicals either. I also wrote that Silver has a good chance of rising back towards $38 (based on the Silver vs Nasdaq Comparison) in the short term. So even though we MIGHT have seen the top in Silver back in April 2011 (we have warned our readers back then that this was a possibility), it doesn't mean that we are BEARISH on commodities. In fact, I am actually quite BULLISH on Gold and Silver right now, which I will explain later on in this post. If we get to $38, it remains to be seen what will happen next. It could be that silver just keeps on rising, and ignores the “Nasdaq Similarities”. If that happens, I will change my view, rather than being stubborn. If I would have held on to 'Fundamentals' when Silver reached $49, I would have burned my hands. Fortunately I didn't, and I saved myself as well as my subscribers a lot of money.

I am not a BULL nor a BEAR in ANY asset class, but I would rather say that I'm a REALIST.

I hope this helps to clarify.

We now have a BUY signal on the RSI for Gold. Price has also broken above a key resistance level, and has made a higher high. However, we still don't have a BUY signal on the MACD (yet), and Price is now close to the upper Bollinger Band, which often acts as resistance.

We also have a BUY signal on Silver, as the RSI broke above the red resistance line and above 50. We will soon get a BUY or SELL signal on the MACD, which will decide whether Silver will rise or fall.

As expected, the higher high in the Gold:Silver ratio was not confirmed by the RSI and MACD, resulting in Negative Divergence, meaning the ratio should soon start to drop. This means Silver should soon outperform Gold. Given the BUY signal on both Gold and Silver, I expect both to rally over the next couple of weeks.

What Gold and Silver will do, greatly depends on the movement of the US Dollar. The dollar has set a higher high, which was not confirmed by the RSI and MACD, resulting in Negative Divergence. Price is also in a rising wedge, which often ends badly.

Sentiment in the US Dollar is also sky-high, adding more weight to my SHORT TERM negative view on the USD and the positive SHORT TERM view on Precious Metals.

The Euro is the heavy weight in the USD index, so the recent dollar strength can be mainly attributed to the Euro Weakness. We can see that Sentiment in the Euro now reaches historic lows. This doesn't mean that the Euro will rise immediately, but the downside potential seems to be rather limited, based on sentiment (not price-wise).

Back in August we warned of the 'Swiss Franc Bubble', which was based on Technical indicators as well as sentiment charts:

That was the EXACT top, as the Swiss Central bank intervened shortly after, and we profited nicely of this opportunity by shorting the Swiss Franc at that time. $XSF (the Swiss Franc Index) is now back at 104 (coming from 140'ish)...That combined with the UBER BEARISH Sentiment, gives me reason to believe that the Swiss Franc may be close to finding a bottom.

Last but not least, the Bullish percent index of Gold Miners is still very depressed. This indicator shows the percentage of mining stocks in the $HUI index that are yielding a BUY signal on their point and figure charts.

Conclusion: IF the Dollar is about to set a short term TOP, this will probably lead to a nice rally of both Gold and Silver, and most likely also in Mining Stocks.

For more articles, trading Updates, Nightly Reports and much more, please visit http://profitimes.com and feel free to sign up for our services!"

.................................

Rich Kolon sends this note.

The reason is that there is a lot of conditional actions that are allowed to explain what will happen and what actually happened.

Such analysis as "unless there is an extension of the C wave, then ..." seems to me to be excuses for failure of the waves to be predictive.

Recently the Bessemer Bend analysis for December 30, 2011 had an apparent Elliott Wave analysis with the heading "GOLD'S D-WAVE CONFIRMED". It predicted that gold would drop to about $1400 by early February, since gold's price went below a recent low. Note the date on the charts indicate the analysis was done after December 28th.

So what happens? Gold is now over $1630. The up move started on December 28th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91058887254

Granted, no system is perfect, and humans are imperfect too.

Now my response to the December drop in gold prices was different. Toby would have you wait until the drop to $1400. I suggested buying the dip in progress. This is based on the theme that gold would be a good store of wealth while governments proceed to debase their fiat currencies over the long haul. (To me this is almost guaranteed.)

The investment strategy is to buy the dips in a long term bullish theme. I mentioned this strategy many times. I identified the trades I made. You can see them in the prior messages in this blog on December 14th and 29th. So far so good.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GTU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91058887254

Over time, I think my strategy is the best for long term investors.

You're rolling dice with Smelliott Waves.

Rich"

While I find the technical discussion of both Toby and Willem facinating. I present them on this site as food for thought. The reader should note that, like Rich, I was buying Silver on the dip, not waiting for THE BOTTOM. I think the biggest problem with technical analysis, which would include Elliot Waves, is that it does, in no way, accout for future events. It is too backward looking to be a good predictor. The example I would give for this case is for one to look at all the turmoil, both positive and negative, that political decisions in Europe caused in 2011. While some of that was predictable, technical analysis was incapable of doing so. Trading does not occur in a vacume. Markets are affected by many outside influences. Again, my prediction for 2012: expect volitility.

....................................

Rich Kolon also sends this note.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/plunge-nyse-short-interest-explains-recent-market-santa-rally

As an observation, QQQ Short-Interest is at 11 year lows (January 2001)

Rich"

Here is a link to : Can You Deal with Earning NO Interest for the Next 10 Years?, by Steve Sjuggerud on DailyWealth.Com. The basic idea of this article does raise some interesting questions. Who could have imagined that we may have a period in our history when interest rates stay extremely low for a decade? How will we, as investors and traders, deal with that possibility?

Red and White D sends along this link to 'Can anyone save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?'

Red and White D also sends along this link to 'Olympus May Sue Executives Over Cover-Up' on Bloomberg.Com.

Here is a link to : 'It Might Not Feel Like It, But Things Are Going Our Way', by Dan Ferris on DailyWealth.Com.

Here is a link to : 'The Decline of US Oil Gluttony', by Matt Badiali on GrowthStockWire.Com.

Here is a link to : 'The Most Important Trend to Watch in 2012', by Larsen Kusick on GrowthStockWire.Com.

And last, but certainly not least is this link sent by Ben Smith to : 'Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts', on SilverBearCafe.Com.

January 8, 2012

Here is a link to: 'The Appearance of Golden Crosses in 2012 and What It Means', on EconomicPolicyJournal.Com. I quote the article below.

"I don't view these golden cross formations as necessarily predicting strong markets ahead, by themselves,, BUT it is telling me that upward price activity is intensifying in these two key markets. If I couple this with the fact that Ben Bernanke has been printing money aggressively in recent months, it suggests to me that Bernanke's money printing is indeed making it into the markets. I believe the money in the system is strong enough to keep markets strong for some time, and if Bernanke keeps up the money printing, price activity to the upside for the stock market, oil and most other commodities will be very strong at least for the first part of 2012."

Here is a link to: 'Forget the Headlines... There's No Recession Looming', on DailyWealth.Com.

Here is a link to: 'The best gold stock-buying opportunity since 2008', on GrowthStockWire.Com.

Yesterday I wrote: "I am watching markets closely. There is a definite wedge pattern in the Russell Two Thousand (RUT) and that has to break sharply in one direction or the other. Toby Connor, above [below], thinks the direction is down. I could make arguements in the other direction. We will see."

Ben Smith sends this link to: 'Doctors going broke', on Money.CNN.Com.

Ben Smith sends this link to: 'Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts', on SiverBearCafe.Com.

Red and White D sends this link to: 'M.I.T. Game-Changer: Free Online Education For All', on Forbes.Com.

Julian sends this link to: 'Susan Lim: Transplant cells, not organs', on Ted.Com.

January 7, 2012

Tobby Connor sends along this posting:

THE PARTY MAY BE OVER!

About it every 35 to 40 days we get a major profit-taking event occur in the stock market. In bull markets that's all it is, a profit-taking event. In a bear market it is a resumption of the cyclical downtrend triggered by deteriorating fundamentals. It still remains to be seen whether or not stocks have rolled over into another cyclical bear market.

However we are entering the timing band for one of those daily cycle corrections. It's not unusual to see this begin as a profit-taking event on the employment report, as we enter earnings season.

As long as earnings season meets expectations then that is all this should be, just a profit-taking event. However, if earnings season disappoints then this could intensify significantly. If in addition we start to see stress in the European debt market escalate it would magnify the rally in the dollar increasing the downward pressure as stocks begin the move down into that cycle low. Let's face it the problems in Europe aren't going away. The cancer in the debt markets is going to continue to chew its way up the sovereign food chain until it finally reaches the US bond market.

The fact that the dollar has consolidated for several weeks above the double top breakout is a strong sign that another powerful leg up is beginning.

Even more concerning for the bullish case is the fact that the next daily cycle should roll over into a much larger degree intermediate decline. That would almost certainly power another leg higher in the dollar and depending on how severe the stress has become in Europe we could see the October lows tested, and even broken if this is a new cyclical bear market.

The kind of selling pressure that is generated at daily cycle lows and especially during an intermediate degree decline effects every asset class to some extent. Gold will be no exception. This is why I have been warning people to wait for the daily cycle low to form in stocks before jumping heavily into precious metal positions.

Gold may or may not have put in a final D-Wave bottom last week. But there is a good chance that bottom is going to get tested in the next couple of weeks. And then of course we will have to contend with the selling pressure as stocks move down into their intermediate degree decline in February and March. That could conceivably drive gold back down below $1523, although I think any dip below that level will only be marginal and quickly recovered.

Right now patience is the name of the game until the stock market has formed a daily cycle low which is due sometime in the middle of January. Cash or a modest position in the dollar index is safest bet for the next couple of weeks."

.................

I am watching markets closely. There is a definite wedge pattern in the Russell Two Thousand (RUT) and that has to break sharply in one direction or the other. Toby Connor, above, thinks the direction is down. I could make arguements in the other direction. We will see.

January 4, 2012

Here is a link to a really scary read: 'A Run On The Global Banking System - How Close Are We?', on Gonzalolira.Blogspot.Com. I quote the article extensively below.

Why does this difference of a single subchapter matter? Because in a brokerage firm bankruptcy, the customers get their money first—because after all, it’s theirs—while in an equities firm bankruptcy, the customers are at the end of the line.

In the case of MF Global, what should have happened was for all the customers to get their money first. Then everyone else—including JPMorgan - would have picked over the remaining scraps. And the monies MF Global had already pledged to JPMorgan? They call it clawback for a reason.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which handled the bankruptcy, should have done this - but instead, the Merc was more concerned with making JPMorgan whole than with protecting the money that rightfully belonged to MF Global's 40,000 customers.

...Now, what does this mean?

It means that nobod's money is safe. It means that regulators care more about protecting the so-called 'Systemically Important Financial Institutions' than about protecting Ordinary Joe investors. It means that, when crunchtime comes, central banks and government regulators will allow SIFI's to get better, and let the Ordinary Joes get fucked.

...As I write this, a lot of investors whom I know personally—who are sophisticated, wealthy, and not at all the paranoid type - are quietly pulling their money out of all brokerage firms, all banks, all equity firms. They are quietly trading out of their paper assets and going into the actual, physical asset.

Note that they're not trading into the asset—they’re simply exchanging their paper-asset for the real thing.

Why? MF Global.

'The MF Global scandal has made it clear that the integrity of the system has disappeared,' said a good friend of mine, Tuur Demeester, who runs Macrotrends, a Dutch-language newsletter out of Brugge. 'The banks are insolvent, the governments are insolvent, and all that's left is for the people to realize what's going on - and that will start a panic.'"

Here is a link to an equally scary read: '30 Statistics That Show That The Middle Class Is Dying Right In Front Of Our Eyes As We Enter 2012', on TheEconomicCollapseBlog.Com.

I subscribe to the Stansberry Newsletter. That is a 'doom and gloom' or 'dire in the mire' report. I like the Stansberry stock tips, but I can not buy into any theory that predicts a cataclysmic economic event...even though I take some steps to protect myself just in case. I am more of a believer in the theory that we will probably see in the future a lot of what we have seen in the past. Yes, we had a financial wave in the sea here in the USA. Yes, Europe is having one now. But, and this is important, the powers that be have kept the ships together. I just don't think the financial world will go out in a bang. It is much more likely that it will go out with a whimper. It is not a real-time train wreck we have to look forward to, but rather, a very slow-motion one.

I see, when I look around the internet pundits, an inability to absorb the idea of a slow-motion train wreck. This is not the 1920s. We live in a world with strong central banks, who will take action. That is the problem. The central banks will act. Their actions will distort markets big time. Their actions have and will drag out a recession and turn it into a depression.

January 3, 2012

I used to be webmaster for Trib.com, which is the online site for the Casper Star-Tribune, the local rag and only state-wide newspaper for Wyoming. Its sister paper, the Billings Gazette, has been doing a series of article on the development of the Bakken field which spans Montana and North Dakota. One of its articles recently appeared in the CST. Here is a link to 'Bakken oil fields creating energy: Boom in northeast Montana appears to have staying power', by Jan Falstad - The Billings Gazette. I quote the article below. It will give my readers outside of the oil patch a hint as to what is transpiring on the energy scene in the United States. We are well on our way to becoming the greatest oil exporting country the world has ever seen.

"More than 50 Billings businesses are chasing the estimated $1.5 billion a month being spent drilling oil wells in the Bakken, straddling the Montana-North Dakota border. There are more than 200 rigs and each one can drill a well a month at an average cost of $7 million per well."

To read more click here.

Here are links to three articles by Matt Taibbi on RollingStone.Com.

'How Banks Cheat Taxpayers'

'Goldman's Latest Boiler-Room Stock: America'

'A Christmas Message From America's Rich'

Here also two other links.

'Storehouses for Solar Energy Can Step In When the Sun Goes Down', by Matthew L. Wald on NYTimes.Com.

'The Appearance of Golden Crosses in 2012 and What It Means', on EconomicPolicyJournal.Com

January 1, 2012

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Today I have some links for you.

'Fuel is top U.S. export for first time', by Chris Kahn - The Associated Press, on Star-Telegram.Com.

'Precious Metals: Lessons Learned in 2011 and Implications for 2012', by Jordan Roy-Byrne on Minyanville.Com.

'A 2012 Housing Rebound Can't Even Save Bank of America', by Shanthi Bharatwaj - The Street on Minyanville.Com.

'Ten years after the euro's launch: How could it have gone so wrong?', by Geert De Clercq - Reuters on TheGlobeAndMail.Com.

'U.S. Growth May Accelerate as Europe Shrinks', by Bob Willis and Timothy R. Homan on Bloomberg.Com.

'Even a Giant Can Learn to Run', by by Steve Lohr on NYTimes.Com.

December 30, 2011

Tobby Connor sends along this posting:

GOLD'S D-WAVE CONFIRMED

With the move below $1535 this morning gold has confirmed that it is still moving down into a D-Wave bottom. There has been some question as to whether or not the D-Wave had bottomed in September. The penetration of that intermediate low this morning confirms that the D-Wave did not end during the overnight selloff on September 26.

In the chart below I have marked with blue arrows the last several yearly cycle lows. As you can see they tend to occur in January or February. The timing band for the next cycle low should occur sometime in early to mid January. That should mark the bottom of this D-Wave decline with the slight possibility that there could be one more short daily cycle down, bottoming in early February. This will almost certainly be dependent on whether the dollar cycle has one or two more daily cycles higher before rolling over into an intermediate decline. Current sentiment levels on the dollar index are suggesting only one daily cycle higher, which should signal a final bottom in the gold market sometime in the next 2-3 weeks.

If gold can make it back to the 50% retracement in the next couple of weeks I would probably be inclined to call a yearly cycle low at that point. If however gold holds above $1500 at the next daily cycle low due in early to mid-January then I would be wary of one more daily cycle down to test the 2010 consolidation zone and 50% retracement ($1400) sometime in early February.

The combination of the dollar rally out of its three year cycle low, gold's yearly cycle low, and a D-Wave decline are going to produce a very sharp correction in the gold bull market. Before this is over most analysts will declare the gold bull dead. On the contrary, sometime early next year you are going to get the single best buying opportunity we will ever have to reenter the secular gold bull in preparation for the bubble phase that should top in late 2014 or early 2015.

As a matter of fact, now that we have confirmed that this is an ongoing D-Wave decline, once its bottom has formed it will generate a violent A-wave advance that should test the 1800 the $1900 level rather quickly later this spring.

Serious money will be made during the A-wave advance. One just needs the patience to wait for the D-Wave to bottom before jumping back into the pool."

...................

Yesterday I received a late Christmas present, it was ordered from and shipped from England. It is a dibber*. At work today I mentioned to Big Bob that I now owned a dibber. He asked me if I have been dabbling with my dibber. I reassured him that I had not. To do that I would need some dirt. However, I continued, if I had some dirt and a second dibber, I would then be a dirty double dibber dabbler.

* Dibber: a gardening device that is essentially a tapered stick, with gradations, that allow a gardener to plant seeds at precise depths.

December 24, 2011

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Here is a link to 'Headwinds for Housing' on EconomicPolicyJournal.Com. This is a must read for all Benders. I quote the article extensively below. Bolding is my own.

Millions of others bought homes with low down payments, while millions more added second mortgages or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) to their existing first mortgages to extract equity.

As a result, 'owner equity as percentage of household real estate,' as measured by the Federal Reserve, has fallen from 60% in 2005 to a mere 38.6% in the third quarter of 2011. When we consider that roughly one-third (33%) of all homes in the US are owned free and clear (i.e., have no mortgage), then we can see that equity in the remaining two-thirds with mortgages is a razor-thin 5%-6%.

Interestingly, despite millions of foreclosures and write-downs, mortgage debt has actually risen from its 2006 level of $9.86 trillion to $9.93 trillion in the third quarter of 2011. (So much for deleveraging.) The “ForeclosureGate” MERS/robo-signing scandal is another systemic wild-card in the housing deck that is has created a legal logjam in the foreclosure pipeline. Since no one can predict the eventual resolution of this logjam, we will set it aside, noting it as an additional impediment to the clearing of the housing market.

With this dramatic contraction of equity in mind, it is understandable that 10.7 million (22%) of all homeowners with a mortgage are 'underwater' -- that is, they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth, while another 5% have negligible equity.

Another aspect of the Fed's failure to boost demand by lowering rates results from the Fed's misunderstanding of how risk is priced when interest rates are kept artificially low via official intervention and manipulation. If we place ourselves in the shoes of a mortgage issuer, we realize that artificially low rates deprive the lender of a means to price risk. In an open, transparent market, interest rates rise and fall according to the perceived risk that the borrower might default and/or the asset underlying the loan might decline substantially in value. ...The Federal Reserve and the Federal government have attempted to boost the housing market's demand and valuations by introducing moral hazard on a vast scale and by making it impossible for the open market to discover the price of housing, mortgages, and risk. Prudent lenders and buyers have been forced by this systemic risk to withdraw from the market, even as artificially low mortgage rates, near-zero down payments, and government-backed mortgages have created generous incentives for the most reckless buyers and lenders to take their chances. After all, if you can't lose more than 3% by buying a spot on the real estate roulette wheel, and all mortgage losses will be made good by the taxpayers, then why not gamble?"

December 17, 2011

Here is a link to 'Behind the Crash in Gold' on EconomicPolicyJournal.Com. I quote the article below.

There is one problem with this plan, however. Banks in the eyes of EU regulators are over-leveraged and need more capital, so under current rules it is going to be difficult for banks to leverage up their balance sheets.

...Got that? Germany has reopened its rescue fund which can supply the capital banks need, which will then allow them to buy the sovereign debt paper that can be discounted to the ECB.

Folks, the plan is in place. The eurozone inflation is coming.

Bottom line, the Germans, French and Brits will be back buying gold and other commodities in no time."

Red and White D sends these three links.

'Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail?' by Matt Taibbi on RollingStone.Com. I quote the article below.

To understand the significance of this, one has to think carefully about the efficacy of fines as a punishment for a defendant pool that includes the richest people on earth - people who simply get their companies to pay their fines for them. Conversely, one has to consider the powerful deterrent to further wrongdoing that the state is missing by not introducing this particular class of people to the experience of incarceration. 'You put Lloyd Blankfein in pound-me-in-the-ass prison for one six-month term, and all this bullshit would stop, all over Wall Street,' says a former congressional aide. 'That's all it would take. Just once.'"

'Traders Confounded as Volatility Extends Run' on Bloomberg.Com. I quote the article below.

Hedge funds overall declined an average 4.4 percent this year through November, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research. The industry lost a record 19 percent in 2008. The S&P 500 returned 1.1 percent this year through November, including reinvested dividends."

'Krugman: It's a Depression, folks, really!' on NYTimes.Com. Regular readers know I have been calling it that for years.

December 16, 2011

Tobby Connor sends along this posting:

GOLD IS ON THE VERGE OF MOVING INTO THE BUBBLE PHASE OF THE BULL MARKET

I know that during a correction of the magnitude we are seeing right now it seems more like the gold bull is dead than on the verge of moving into what I expect will be one of the greatest parabolic moves in history.

However, all of the conditions necessary to launch the bubble phase are now in place. Gold is in the process of putting in an intermediate degree bottom. That bottom, which is only days away if it didn't already happen today, is going to be the single greatest buying opportunity, probably of the decade.

Gold sentiment is at multiyear lows. Retail traders that bought at $1900 have gotten wiped out. The media is full of stories calling for the death of the gold bull. Institutional traders from John Paulson, George Soros, and Dennis Gartman have all gotten knocked off the bull.

Breadth in the universally hated mining sector is back down to levels that have only been exceeded during the crash in 2008.

This sector has consolidated for so long that no one believes in mining stocks anymore. This is exactly the same sentiment that was prevalent in the silver market in the fall of 2010.

All the conditions are in place to launch the next stage of the secular bull market.

Up until now my expectation has been that we would see gold consolidate for probably the better part of a year before the next C-wave breaks out to new highs.

However, the scenario that is unfolding in the CRB and dollar indexes has me wondering if the gold bull isn't going to start evolving much faster than I originally expected. Let's just say that if I am correct and the dollar is on the verge of topping then we are probably going to see a much shorter consolidation than originally expected. Gold could launch much more quickly out of the B-Wave bottom than I expected and move to new all-time highs as early as the next intermediate cycle.

As a matter of fact I'm pretty confident that if the dollar turns down it is going to trigger the beginning of the third and final, bubble phase, in the gold bull market.

The public is already starting to become aware of the gold bull. All we need at this point to start the flood is for gold to recover quickly from this selloff. If gold quickly shoots back up and tags, or penetrates that big psychological $2000 number I expect it will be the siren call that draws the public into the bull market. And it is the public coming into a market that triggers the bubble phase.

During this phase of the bull I expect we will see the normal ABCD wave pattern break down as gold starts to accelerate into what will almost certainly be the most incredible parabolic advance, maybe in history. By the fall of 2014 I expect we will see gold somewhere between $7,000 and $20,000 an ounce.

I think tonight's premium report is important enough that I'm going to reopen the $1 trial subscription for two days. You will have access to the entire site for the next two days for the price of one George Washington. You can either keep your subscription and it will convert to a monthly at the end of the trial period or cancel it and you won't be charged another dime. Either way you will get access to a report that I think is important for every gold investor to read.

If you decide to cancel do so by following the directions on the home page of the website. Please allow one day to process your one dollar payment before canceling. Click on the link above to go to the premium website and then click the subscribe link on the upper right side to link to the subscription page."

................................

I am looking at the charts today, and it looks to me as if all the suckers have been driven out of the gold/silver markets. I have been buying more. It looks like a bottom to me. Whatever you read about the markets...don't believe there is any trend out there, EXCEPT FOR VOLITILITY. Volitility is the one factor that has been, and will continue to be consistent. So, go forth and buy low and sell high.

News 107, from November 27, 2011 to ?

News 107, from September 26, 2011 to November 23, 2011

News 106, from August 06, 2011 to September 26, 2011

News 105, from June 22, 2011 to August 4, 2011

News 104, from April 19, 2011 to June 19, 2011

News 103, from March 15, 2011 to April 18, 2011

News 102, from February 11, 2011 to March 14, 2011

News 101, from January 24, 2011 to February 10, 2011

News 100, from December 21, 2010 to January 11, 2011

News 99, from October 4, 2010 to December 19, 2010

News 98, from September 8, 2010 to October 3, 2010

News 97, from July 27, 2010 to September 7, 2010

News 96, from July 4, 2010 to July 25, 2010

News 95, from May 20, 2010 to June 28, 2010

News 94, from April 23, 2010 to May 19, 2010

News 93, from March 3, 2010 to April 22, 2010