NEWS #27

 

From June 22, 2015 to August 22, 2015

August 22, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

CHARTS OF THE DAY

And here are some interesting links:

Opinion: Germans begin the looting of Greece on MarketWatch.Com

American economy blues: Everything you need to worry about on MarketWatch.Com

Gross: Low rates are the problem, not the solution on CNBC.Com

Fed's trillions haven't helped worker paychecks on CNBC.Com

St. Louis Fed official: No evidence QE boosted economy on CNBC.Com

The Last Great Bubble may finally be starting to pop on MarketWatch.Com

August 17, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

CHARTS OF THE DAY

Here is a link:

Market timer Tom McClellan sees stocks set up for ‘ugly decline’ as early as Thursday on MarketWatch.Com

August 15, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along this posting:

August 03, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

CHARTS OF THE DAY

Here are some links:

The Positive Feedback Loop is Broken on TheReformedBroker.Com

Why the olds want to continue working on TheReformedBroker.Com

A Cheer and a Half for Cheap Commodities on NYTimes.Com

Steady Job Growth Is Still Not Boosting Workers' Pay, New Numbers Show on HuffingtonPost.Com

Job growth rate is not keeping up with population, and has not done so since the early George W. Bush years. Less and less money is spilling into the growing bottom 90 percent of the population. Where is the beef? Where is the growth? More people are getting to work but at wages that are considerable worse than they (or workers like them) made over a decade ago.

Demographically, fewer and fewer can afford that new house. The housing market is moving away from young couples with children.

Labor has no ability to demand wage raises.

Commodities have no ability to demand price raises.

The dollar menu at fast food grows, while overall sales decline.

Where is the beef?

August 03, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along this posting:

July 30, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these charts:

And here is a link to a different chart that I discovered. It looks like the FED has taken all the risk out of being a banker.

July 16, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along this posting:

July 15, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

CHART OF THE DAY: July 15, 2015

CHART OF THE DAY: July 14, 2015

I am in and out of DWTI, a short on crude. I will continue playing this for a while as it looks like crude is in a bad way and that DWTI provides some good entry points.

July 2, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along these postings:

CHART OF THE DAY: July 2, 2015

CHART OF THE DAY: July 3, 2015

This second chart is grim, particularly if you live in the oil patch like I do. I guess that I have been thinking along parallel lines with Gary Savage. I am into shorting crude in a big way.

July 2, 2015

COMMENTARY: WHERE'S THE BEEF?

In an age past, that was the theme of a series of commercials for Burger King. The ads were very popular.

I have to ask a parallel question of my own: Where's the Recovery?

I am not seeing it, this 'Recovery'. Here is what I do see.

Lack of Pricing Power

Perhaps the biggest tell of all, the lack of pricing power is a very somber sign. If we are recovering so well, why aren't commodity prices, from corn to lumber to oil, rebounding. I know, the price of oil has recovered a bit, but that is highly manipulated so as to maximize profits during the peak driving period of the year (summer). How are copper and steel doing. Yeah, both of these are used in autos, and autos are supposedly booming. So, why aren't commodities like copper and iron doing very well? I expect oil to dog it down in the fall and there may be money to be made betting on its fall.

Lack of Entry and Reentry

Folks in their late 50s and early 60s got butchered like hogs in the housing crisis. They have not been able to recover and reenter the economy as consumers. It is not happening. Typically, the old man lost his job and had to replace it with one that pays only a third of what the old one paid. His grandson did finish college, but now struggles to find a job that pays half what his grampa earned pre-housing crisis.

Dollar Woes

Keeping the interest rate at Zero for so long does not say good things about the true strength of the dollar. But the FED keeping the rates so low for so long does speak volumes about what the FED sees recover-wise.....there 'ain't' one. If the economy was really popping the FED would be concerned about inflation. No such concern is being heard about because.....there 'ain't' any. Yes, the dollar is high against other currencies. That's because the dollar is the best looking horse in the glue factory.

Who is doing Better, and Why

The State of Washington has a real recovery going on. Small businesses are popping up all over. Why? Well, Washington has about the highest minimum wage of any of the 50 states. Hmmmm. You mean that if you put money into the pockets of the wage earners at the bottom, the whole economy benefits? Well, that seems to be the way it is working.

But we have an adinistration and a congress that just refuses to get it. State legislatures are looking at Washington's results and are sitting on their thumbs (not a comfortable position), refusing to copy success, sometimes refusing to even believe the Washington example that is set before them.

Somehow, like the Emperor who had no clothes, we have policy makers who actually believe we can have a recovery without giving the little guy a little more money. Remember how corporations were exporting jobs before the housing crisis? That had to take money out of American pockets. The money never came back. The old 'I'll lay off half of my employees and you lay off half of yours and we will still have enough consumers left to buy all the products you and I make' just does not work. The consumers got decimated. The ones who still have a job are making less now than they did before. But the administration and congress and state legislatures are still working on the hope that some kind of magic will occur where we can have recovery and pay workers less and less.

The Scary thing about China

China is big enough now that it can affect the rest of the world in a big way for the better or for the worse. The view I have about China is that it is more desperate to restart its recovery than at any time in its history. China is choking and is going to be leaving the table and this lack of appetite is going to negatively affect commodity prices around the world. This is bad news.

The Scary thing about the FED

The FED believes it can broadcast to the world that our dollar is worthless (by having zero interest rates) and that no harm will ever come of that, no matter how many months and years it keeps the rates low and no matter how loud they shout about the worthlessness of our nation's currency.

But I have to wonder how a worthless currency can possibly stimulate a recovery.

The Federal Reserve also hopes you don't notice that it has single-handedly killed the relationship you used to have with your local banking institution. Banks no long need you for your deposits. They don't want your money.

The FED has also killed all incentive to save with its low rates. Please recall the Macro-Economics course you took all those years ago. Remember the formula with savings in it...the formula that represented the natural economic and business cycles? Well, the FED killed that formula by becoming the universal source for money. But if you and your small pile of money is out of the real-world working economic formula, how can you possibly act to cause a recovery to occur? And if the FED has replaced you and your savings in the formula, how effective has the FED been to 'cause' a recovery in your place?

Want to see a Scary Chart? Click Here.

June 27, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along this posting:

Here are a few links.

This Is How Fast America Changes Its Mind on Bloomberg.Com

Crying Foul on Plans to Expand the S.E.C.’s In-House Court System on NYTimes.Com

Investing is Emotional on TheReformedBroker.Com

Health Care Stocks Soar After Obamacare Victory In Supreme Court on HuffingtonPost.Com

NOTE ON WHAT I AM DOING

I am just waiting. This feel good market will still dip in the summer. Then I can buy.

June 22, 2015

Tobby Connor/Gary Savage sends along this posting:

Bender Home Directory